629
FXUS63 KGID 070539
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Areal Flood Warnings across portions of Hamilton, York,
  Clay, Filmore, Nuckolls and Thayer counties will remain in
  effect this evening and likely tonight as many areas, slow to
  drain, continue to have water-levels near and exceeding their
  stream/river banks.

- A few more isolated storms will be possible tonight (mainly
  across areas south to southeast of the Tri-cities area) and
  Sunday (mainly areas east of HWY-281). These storms should
  remain sub-severe and will be highly scattered in coverage.

- A severe storm or two can`t be ruled out Monday evening/night.
  The best potential will be towards the west to southwest
  portion of the area.

- Temperatures will warm some Monday (mid 80s to lower 90s) and
  Tuesday (mid 90s to low 100s). A cold front passage on
  Wednesday should point highs more towards the 80s to lower 90s
  for the rest of the week.

- A few passing disturbances next week as well as uncertainty on
  exact timing keep precipitation chances in the forecast
  virtually each afternoon for at least a portion of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026


Short Term...Today through Sunday.

Following some late night thunderstorms across a few mainly northern
and eastern portions of the area, observed spots of minor flooding
and full/overflowing stream/river beds prompt the need to continue
the Areal Flood warnings across a few of our southeastern Nebraska
counties (Hamilton, York, Clay, Filmore, Nuckolls and Thayer) until
at least tonight. For more information regarding the ongoing
flooding, please refer to the hydrology section below.

Today we find ourselves underneath split flow as broad ridging
covers the Northern Plains with a shortwave trough centered across
the Southern Plains. The disturbance down south will be expected to
take a northeastward track up to the Midwest through the first part
of the new week. Outer precipitation bands from this system may
slide by a few southeastern portions of the area this evening and
tonight. A few weak (non-severe) storms will likely pop up between 4-
10PM across a few portions of north central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska (areas mainly south and east of the Tri-Citoes). As the
coverage of precipitation is expected to be more of a "hit or miss"
and highly scattered rather than widespread in coverage, PoPs for
any given location remain on the weaker side (10-30% for the
southeastern third of the area, mainly locations southeast of a line
from Geneva, NE to Red Cloud, NE to Plainville, KS).

For Sunday, a few scattered showers and weak storms will disperse
across the eastern portion of the area (mainly areas east of HWY-
281) with up to 30-50% PoPs hovering across the eastern fringes of
the area through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, temperatures
tonight will cool down to the low to mid 60s with light winds
remaining out of the southeast. Overcast skies filling in across the
overnight hours will begin to clear out across the later morning to
later afternoon hours Sunday (clouds making up the outer cirrus
shield of the southeast passing disturbance). Highs for sunday,
despite the partial cloud coverage, should be able to return to the
low to mid 80s Sunday afternoon.


Long Term...Monday and Beyond

A northwest located trough will gradually push out the Northern
Plains ridge, later retuning the mid to upper level flow to
southwesterlies by Monday. A quick passing shortwave disturbance on
Monday may throw a few more scattered storms into the area (25-50%).
The potential of severe weather could return to a limited (southwest)
portion of the area Monday evening/night as increasing instability
from warming temperatures could add some extra intensity to a few
storms. The rest of the forecast period (through next Saturday)
continues to bring at least a limited afternoon to nighttime pop up
storm chance to at least a portion of the area. These daily chances
come from increasing uncertainty on how the upper-level pattern will
unfold (when a few minor disturbances embedded within the
approaching trough will pass through the Region).

Temperatures will be heating up into the middle of the week as highs
transition from the 80s on Monday to the 90s and low 100s on Tuesday
and Wednesday (Heat indices possibly as high as 105 degrees). This
warm up will best be assisted by clearing skies and steady southerly
winds winding up Tuesday afternoon. A frontal passage on Wednesday
should place a cap on the warming trend, though the 80s to low 90s
look to be possible each day for the of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Southerly winds will be present through 12z then winds will
switch to the southeast with stronger winds during the
afternoon. Low ceilings are expected beginning overnight by 09z
and will continue until around 16z/17z. Showers are expected
later overnight with thunderstorms possible during the early
afternoon hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Flood water across several of our counties will be slow to
recede within the hardest hit areas. The flooding in some areas
is expected to persist through tonight and possibly into Sunday
morning.

The basins most likely to experience continued flooding into tonight
include:
West Fork of the Big Blue River (Downstream of Stockham)
Beaver Creek (Giltner through York County)
Lincoln Creek (Hamilton and York Counties)
School Creek downstream of Sutton
Turkey Creek in Fillmore County
Little and Big Sandy Creek (Corner of Clay, Fillmore, Nuckolls,
Thayer Counties)

Any additional rainfall this evening/tonight is expected to be
isolated and non-impactful to our ongoing flooding.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Schuldt
HYDROLOGY...Wesely