848
FXUS63 KGID 020832
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
232 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shortwave disturbance currently working its way through the
  Central Plains is helping drive the ongoing scattered
  precipitation early this morning. Showers and a few
  thunderstorms will remain possible through early-mid morning.

- Expecting a lull in activity during a good chunk of the
  daytime hours today...with continued gusty southerly winds and
  highs climbing into the 70s ahead of an approaching cold
  front.

- By mid-late afternoon, this surface cold front will be roughly
  halfway through the forecast area...and will provide a focus
  for thunderstorm development. Potential remains that some
  storms will be strong-severe. While damaging winds/hail are
  the primary threat, an isolated tornado is not out of the
  question.

- Precipitation chances linger into Tuesday...with the forecast
  drying out Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 224 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Currently...

Continuing to see scattered precipitation work its way northeast
across the area...a trend that will continue through the rest of
the early morning hours. In the upper levels...the eastern half
of the CONUS sits under a less amplified pattern of weaker
ridging/troughing...compared to the Rockies/most of the western
half of the CONUS driven by a larger/deeper trough axis.
Satellite and upper air data showing the main axis still off to
our west this morning...with an embedded shortwave disturbance
out ahead currently moving through the central High Plains. This
lead disturbance and increased warm air/moisture advection
along a stronger low-level jet is what is driving the ongoing
activity across the region...with radar showing the back edge
working through western KS/southwestern NE. At the
surface...gusty south-southeasterly winds will continue through
the rest of tonight...as the forecast area sits east of a
deepening area of low pressure over northeastern portions of CO.
Gusts mainly in the 25-35 MPH expected to continue the rest of
tonight. SPC Meso page/short term models showing at least a few
hundred j/kg of instability spreading across the area through
the rest of tonight...so at least a few thunderstorms remain
possible.

Today through Tuesday night...

The wave of ongoing scattered preciptiation continues to push
northeast this morning...largely exiting the forecast area
by/near the 12-15Z timeframe. Once it moves out...short
term/hi-res models show the potential for a notable lull in
activity across the forecast area...as we sit between the
departing upper level wave and the larger scale trough axis.
During the daytime hours today...as that next push of upper
level forcing approaches, an accompanying surface cold front
will be working its way east...with models in pretty good
agreement showing the front along our WNW border by midday.
Through the afternoon hours, this front will continue to trek
across the forecast area...becoming a focus for increasing
thunderstorm chances, potentially already by mid-afternoon.
Models showing the fronts progress being on the slow side...only
about halfway through the forecast area by 00Z.

Ahead of this frontal boundary today, the gusty southerly winds
continue, with gusts exceeding 30 MPH continuing at least
through the first half of the day...not out of the question that
some gusts closer to 40 MPH occur. Dewpoints around 60 have
already worked their way into southern portions of the area
early this morning...those mainly lower 60s dewpoints will
continue pushing north today. Along with a potential for more
sun in the dry slot/warm sector, highs today could reach into
the mid 70s across central/eastern portions of the forecast
area. Models showing the potential for an axis of MLCAPE values
between 1000-1500 j/kg nosing north into the area ahead of the
sfc front...and with the increasing mid-level forcing spreading
across the area...expecting at least scattered thunderstorms to
develop along the front, including the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms. While damaging wind gusts, then hail, are
the primary threats...it`s not out of the question isolated
brief tornadoes could occur, mainly over SErn portions of the
area as the low-level jet picks up early this evening.

Tonight into Tuesday...the area of upper level low pressure that
is shown by models to deepen over SErn CO during the day today
will slide east-northeast across the Central Plains...keeping
chances for showers/thunderstorms in the forecast. Ensemble
data, especially the ECMWF, continue to show good probabilities
of at least 0.5" or more by the time it`s all said and done
Tuesday evening...even showing a decent swath of 50+ percent
chance of 1" or more across the area. The GEFS is not as
optimistic. Following highs today in the low-mid 70s...highs on
Tuesday, sitting behind the front and with lingering precip
chances, fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Mid-late week...

Forecast remains dry Wednesday through Friday in the wake of
this latest upper level system passing through...with
scattered low-end (20 percent) chances returning this weekend.
Currently don`t have much of a rebound in temperatures...with
forecast highs Wed-weekend mainly in the 50s-low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An upper level trough extends from Canada southward to California.
Nebraska and Kansas are just ahead of the upper trough with mainly
southeast winds across the forecast area. High temperatures today
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
will be hindered by the persistent cloud cover but are expected to
be in the upper 50s and 60s. Light rain showers are expected to
continue through the rest of the afternoon into tonight.
Precipitation intensity and amounts are expected to increase by late
tonight across portions of the area. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop with the heaviest precipitation under these storms. Rainfall
amounts tonight will generally be a quarter of an inch or less
except in areas of thunderstorms where amounts of around an inch may
occur. Winds will increase out of the southeast this evening into
tonight (sustained at around 15 to 25 MPH) as a low-level jet moves
over the area. The winds along with the persistent cloud cover will
prevent temperatures from cooling much overnight. In fact,
temperatures may warm slightly as the night progresses with
increasing wind speeds and heavier rainfall. Lows tonight are
expected to be in the 50s and 60s.

The upper trough/low moves over the central Plains on Monday. The
showers and thunderstorms are expected to mainly be out of the
forecast area by noon on Monday with skies clearing during the
afternoon. A surface trough will be across the area during the
afternoon with gusty, southerly winds (sustained at around 15 to 25
MPH with gusts possibly up to 40 to 50 MPH in some areas). There is
some uncertainty with high temperatures on Monday due to the timing
of a cold front, strength of the surface trough, and departure
timing of the precipitation and cloud cover. Generally think
temperatures will warm up into the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s. There
is a possibility (20% to 30% chance) of temperatures reaching the
low 80s in portions of north central Kansas. The timing of the cold
front across the forecast area is expected to range from the mid
afternoon through late evening. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front during the afternoon into the
evening hours. Some of these storms may become strong to severe
depending on if the atmosphere has enough time to destabilize
between the exiting rain and cloud cover earlier in the day to the
timing of the cold front. Tend to think there will be enough
destabilization for strong to severe storms to develop. Storm
development could be as early as 3 PM and as late as around 7 PM.
Temperatures Monday night are expected to cool into the 40s and low
50s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into Monday
night.

The upper level trough/low will remain across the area on Tuesday
but will be a little further east. The cold front will continue
pushing through the area with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Rain showers are expected to continue across portions of the area on
Tuesday. Expect gusty, northerly winds on Tuesday with gusts up to
around 40 MPH possible in some areas. Low temperatures Tuesday night
are expected to cool into the 30s and 40s. A slight warm up is
expected on Wednesday with drier conditions. High temperatures will
continue to be in the 50s and 60s Thursday through Saturday with low
temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR ceilings will be expected to stick around for the
rest of the night with cloud bases beginning to rise/scatter
out after 11z. MVFR ceilings could return as early as 13z for
KEAR and as early as 15z for KGRI. VFR conditions look possible
to return for much of the 16-0z period for KEAR and most of the
18-3z period for KGRI. At least MVFR cloud bases will be
expected to return sometime between 0-4z Monday evening.

Light rain showers could pass in and out of both terminal sites
tonight, bringing occasional drops in visibilities. These
overnight showers, however, should clear out before sunrise.
Thunderstorm chances return after 22z Monday afternoon as a
cold front looks to power through. This front will additionally
be responsible for flipping wind direction around from a
southerly direction to a northwestelry directions.

Winds tonight have already taken off with speeds near 20kts and
gusting to between 30-35kts. These speeds/gusts will be
favored to maintain until closer to the fronts arrival Monday
afternoon. With the low-level nocturnal jet strong aloft
tonight, LLWS should maintain until Monday morning.
Northwestelry winds behind the front Monday afternoon will keep
steady 10-15kts winds around with gusts as high as 20-25ks.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Stump