135
FXUS63 KGID 121124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread hot and humid conditions continue for at least one
  more day with afternoon heat index values around 100 degrees
  as far north as Interstate 80 to near 110 degrees across our
  north central Kansas counties. A heat advisory is in effect
  for north central Kansas from noon until 9 PM this evening.

- Increasing chances for thunderstorms arrive tonight,
  especially for portions of south central Nebraska. There is a
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for most of our Nebraska forecast
  area, and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk elsewhere.

- A fairly active, and overall considerably cooler, pattern
  settles in for the end of the week and into the weekend. Best
  rain chances will tend to favor areas from the Tri-Cities,
  north and west, and mainly during the evening/night hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A busy night across the local area as a cluster of thunderstorms
impacted the northern most portions of the local forecast area
early this morning. While some additional strong wind gusts
cannot be ruled out through 6 AM CDT, the storms on the southern
fringe of this cluster appear to be weakening and the threat
for additional severe thunderstorms across the local area
appears to be decreasing.

For today, expect outflow from this mornings thunderstorm
activity to push south towards the NE/KS state line during the
morning hours, helping to trap the most oppressive heat for
this afternoon across north central Kansas. That said, this
boundary is expected to lift north during the mid-afternoon
hours, helping to expand hot and humid conditions northward,
with heat index values likely approaching 100 degrees as far
north as Interstate 80 this afternoon. As we then transition
towards evening, another cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms is expected to rotate across the local area from
the high plains, with strong thunderstorm wind gusts and
marginally severe hail both possible across much of the local
area this evening into the late night hours. At the present
time, much of the Nebraska portion of the local area is in a
slight risk for severe weather tonight.

For the remainder of the period, gradually cooler temperatures
along with occasionally unsettled weather is anticipated
through Saturday, with widespread below normal temperatures and
continued unsettled conditions expected Sunday into at least the
first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Heat impacts:
Another warm/hot afternoon across the area...and also quite
steamy for most of south central Nebraska, where dew points in
the upper 60s to mid 70s are common. Air temperatures have
surpassed the century mark for many areas along and S of the
state line, but this is also where drier air resides. Thus, heat
indices here are not all that different than the thermometer
readings. Expanded the Heat Advisory earlier today to include
the rest of northern KS and sure enough, both Phillipsburg and
Smith Center are hovering near 105F heat index. Will be
interesting to see how the heat unfolds next couple of days as
there will be several competing factors. A cold front (currently
along the Hwy 20 corridor) will gradually sink southward and
usher in at least modestly cooler air for most of our Neb
zones...and there could also be several bouts of mid to high
clouds and perhaps even a few elevated showers. However, areas S
of the boundary will remain very warm, and likely as humid or
even more humid than today given propensity for moisture to pool
along/just ahead of such boundaries. Also, these areas will
remain quite warm tonight - only briefly dipping into the upper
70s - and have an already elevated launching pad for
temperatures on Wednesday. Therefore, opted to issued another
Heat Advisory for Osborne, Mitchell, and Jewell Counties where
heat indices around 105F are again most likely. It`s possible
the front may not move quite as far S as currently expected, in
which case the advisory may very well need to be expanded
northward. We`ll see how the front trends overnight.

Temperature uncertainties only increase for Thursday, with
latest NBM guidance indicating the potential for a 25+ degree
spread in highs from N to S. In fact, the current forecast for
Thursday would place our far S tier of KS counties once again
around the 105F heat index criteria for another Heat Advisory.
Considerably higher chances for showers and thunderstorms Wed
night (discussed further below) cast even more uncertainty on
where the effective front/composite outflow resides by peak
heating Thursday. Just know the far S may need to wait one more
day (maybe even two??) to get in on some relief from the heat.
The latest forecast is void of any 90s by Sunday-Monday, and
areas along/N of I-80 may not get out of the 70s. Pattern may
turn warmer again towards the middle of next week.

Rain/Storm Chances:
Scattered showers and storms are developing over W Neb. late
this afternoon, and this activity will attempt to move into at
least far W zones this evening. However, similar to past few
nights, the expectation is that steady weakening will occur
after sunset. Thus, may not see much more than sprinkles E of
Hwy 183. Another area of storms for us to watch will be what`s
currently developing over the Black Hills. Most CAM guidance
suggests the brunt of this will remain to our N (thus only being
grazed by the Day 1 Marginal Risk)...but this batch is expected
to be more organized...and sometimes these complexes can turn a
little more southerly than models indicate.

Can`t rule out some elevated showers/weak storms over portions
of south central Nebraska during the day Wednesday, but
significantly higher chances for rain arrive on Wednesday night.
Appears this activity will focus the most over areas mainly
W/NW/N of the Tri-Cities, but the entire forecast area will at
least stand a chance of seeing something. There is a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather for the aforementioned most-
favorable corridor, with the main risk being damaging winds and
large hail. The combination of strong instability and
seasonably strong deep layer shear argues for at least SOME
risk for a more organized upscale growth/MCS and damaging wind
threat to evolve out of the initial development over W NE/SD Wed
eve- night. However, there remains some uncertainty on the
overall strength and placement of the low level jet, which may
be displaced further E. The general pattern, conceptually, is
one that favors MCSs rolling off the High Plains, so this is a
trend we`ll need to monitor closely, esp. for areas N of I-80.

Frequent, essentially daily, rain/storm chances continue
Thursday eve/night and into the weekend. Finer details are
murky, at best...but would expect efficient rain makers given
coherent connection to monsoonal moisture that`s pulled
northward on the backside of the high pressure over the Deep
South. Also, proximity to seasonably strong mid/upper flow
argues for non-zero severe risk, as well...esp. as it pertains
to possibly one or two more organized MCSs in the evening and
overnight hours. Upper ridging may begin to reassert itself and
lead to lower rain chances next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the first half of the
period with a PROB30 group to cover thunderstorm potential aft
13/03-13/04Z at both terminals. Winds today will generally be
light...at less than 12 KTS...out of the east, with stronger
northeasterly winds associated with the developing convection
late this evening and into the overnight hours. MVFR CIGS/VSBYs
along with some gusty thunderstorm winds to 30 KTS will be
possible with the evening convection, primarily between
13/03-13/10Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Rossi