491
FXUS63 KGID 262053
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
253 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few sprinkles/flurries possible southwest of the Tri-Cities
  this evening.

- Dry on Thanksgiving with highs in the low-mid 40s and partly
  to mostly sunny skies.

- Chances for snow arrive Friday night-Saturday morning. Snow falling
  combined with northwest winds gusting 35-45mph will result in
  periods of poor visibility.

- Snow accumulations range from a dusting (central/west) to an
  inch (east).

- Sub-Zero wind chills possible Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are sitting below their climatological
normals, in the upper 30s to low 40s. A passing disturbance brings a
chance for sprinkles/flurries this evening southwest of the Tri-
Cities, but dry air near the surface will inhibit/prevent
accumulations. Lows tonight drop into the mid teens to mid 20s under
mostly cloudy skies.

Thanksgiving...

Overall, Thanksgiving Day looks to be quiet weather-wise as the area
sits under northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal, with highs in the low to mid 40s and partly
to mostly sunny skies.

Friday and Saturday...

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Friday ahead of an
approaching trough. Highs on Friday range from the upper 30s across
northeastern portions of the area to the upper 40s across the
southwest. Southerly winds will be breezy, gusting 25-30mph. Models
remain consistent in keeping the initial wave of precipitation
northeast of the area, resulting in dry weather during the
daytime hours on Friday.

This quickly changes Friday night as the trough and surface low move
into the Plains. The low will be centered over Kansas Friday night-
Saturday morning, with a warm front residing along the NE/KS border.
PoPs increase after midnight as precipitation fills in around
the low. As it does, cold air wraps into the system with a
transition from rain to snow Saturday morning. This could result
in a brief period of mixed precipitation, and could result in
slick roads when combined with dropping temperatures. Winds
gusts quickly ramp Saturday morning along the backside of the
low. Northwest winds gusting 35-45mph are expected during the
daytime hours on Saturday. Gusty winds combined with any falling
snow will result in poor visibility for those
outdoors/traveling. Snow ends from west to east late Saturday
morning-evening as the system moves into the Midwest. Most of
the area will see a dusting to an inch of snow. Eastern-
Northeastern portions of the area are most likely to see 1" or
more of snowfall, with the least accumulations west of Highway
183. Given the holiday weekend and increased travel it`s worth
repeating that those traveling on Saturday will experience poor
visibility in falling snow.

Uncertainties:

The biggest uncertainties with the forecast are how quickly
precipitation wraps around the low, and how much snowfall will occur
across eastern portions of the area. The high and low end scenarios
for precipitation coverage can be seen well when comparing the
GFS/NAM to the ECMWF/GDPS. The 12z GFS/NAM show light rain/snow
Friday night-Saturday morning. A band of heavier snow then develops
during the mid morning hours on Saturday across eastern/northeastern
portions of the area which exits the area Saturday afternoon. This
scenario would result in most of the forecast area seeing less than
an inch of snow, with 1" possible mainly along/east of Highway 81.
The heavier solution as shown by the 12z ECMWF/GDPS would see a band
of heavier snow develop by sunrise and be further west. This would
result in more widespread chances to see 1" of snow, with far
eastern portions of the area seeing 2-3" of snow. It`s also worth
noting that GFS/ECMWF/GDPS ensembles have shown a gradual westward
shift in the chance for 3" of snow (10-20% chance along/east of
Highway 81). There is still plenty of time for things to change, so
keep a close eye on the forecast, especially for those traveling on
Saturday.

Sunday Onwards....

Cold air will be in place over the area Sunday morning, with lows in
the single digits to low teens and wind chill values near to below
zero! Highs on Sunday only climb into the 20s. The next shortwave
moves into the plains Sunday night Monday. Models continue to show
that any snow that does fall with this system will remain light (a
dusting), and be most likely along/south of the NE-KS border. Sub-
zero wind chills are possible again Monday morning, with highs once
again confined to the 20s. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday with
highs climbing above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. SCT-BKN mid-level
clouds move over the area this evening, clearing by the early
morning hours on Thursday. Northwest winds become light and
variable this evening, with light and variable winds continuing
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis