990
FXUS63 KGID 292352
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
652 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After an overall quiet day today, first round of precipitation
  chances will start working its way in this evening/overnight.
  Main chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms looks to
  be near/east of HWY 281. Severe weather is not expected.

- After a bit of a lull during the day on Friday, next upper
  level disturbance currently over the TX/NM/Mex area will slide
  into the area...bringing another bout of rain/storm chances.

- Scattered precip chances linger into the weekend (mainly
  Saturday)...with the potential for more widespread
  precipitation moving in Sun night into Mon-Tue with the
  arrival of a stronger upper level system. Still plenty of
  finer details to work out with timing/track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Currently through tonight...

Been an overall quiet day across the area today...though
satellite imagery shows a stark contrast in sky cover from
north to south. Low-level stratus that started working its way
into the area late last night has remained stubbornly in place
over southern half, keeping skies overcast...vs the northern
half which has had no shortage of sun. Looking aloft, flow
across the region remains west- southwesterly...with broad
ridging over much of the southeastern CONUS, while a stronger
area of low pressure is making its way into the Pac NW region.
To our south-southwest, satellite imagery showing a shortwave
disturbance making its way north through the TX/NM/Mex border
region. The overall surface pattern is on the weaker side...the
main frontal boundary is draped from WSW-ENE across central KS,
with weak high pressure centered over the Dakotas. This has kept
winds easterly across the area today, with speeds mainly 10-
15, with an occasional gust closer to 20 MPH. Western portions
of north central KS have been struggling to even get to 60
today, rest of the area has been more in the mid 60s.

This evening and tonight...still have the potential for some
precipitation to work it way NNE through the region, driven by
increasing warm air/moisture advection as the low-level jet
ramps up. Models not showing any overly strong LLJ, generally
around 30kts, and even at this point still showing some
differences with just how much coverage there ends up being.
Expecting coverage to be on the scattered side of things...with
models still focusing the better chances mainly near/east of HWY
281. Can`t rule out some of this activity being thunderstorms
with instability also building back north with time...and a
stronger storm is not out of the question, but the overall
threat for severe weather remains low.

Friday through the weekend...

Some of this activity from tonight may linger across especially
eastern areas to start off the day on Friday...but most models
show a lull between this round and the next working in later
in the day. Really hasn`t been any significant changes with
models through Friday, with the main focus being that above
mentioned upper level disturbance over TX/NM/Mex...which will
continue trekking northward with time, roughly reaching into srn
KS by evening. Still some differences between models with the
timing of the main shield of precipitation reaching the southern
edge of the forecast area...could be seeing at least scattered
activity already by mid-late afternoon, with the better chances
looking to focus mainly after 00Z into the overnight hours. Some
models are also showing the chance that this system weakens
slightly as it pushes north through the area...potentially
diminishing the overall coverage of activity with time. Similar
to tonight...instability in the area keeps the threat for
thunderstorms around, but the threat for severe weather remains
low. Higher dewpoints/better moisture building in will help any
activity being efficient rain-makers...so any spots that have a
stronger storm or any training could pick up at least an inch of
rain through Friday night.

Confidence in precipitation chances for the upcoming weekend are
not high...with models difference with the timing of this
latest system working east of the area and when precip wanes.
Some models are pretty slow, keeping the potential for at least
scattered preciptiation around much of/if not all of the day on
Saturday, a few lingering even longer. Forecast currently has
much of the day Sunday dry with some weak shortwave ridging
moving through...but any break would likely be brief, as chances
ramp back up Sunday night.

As far as temperatures go, not looking at any notable
swings...but with the plentiful precip chances and potential
cloud cover make for a lower confidence forecast. Expecting
highs generally in the 60s Fri-Sun...depending on precip timing
into the daytime hours, some spots may struggle to even get to
60.

New work week...

Main story Sunday night, and moreso into Monday-
Tuesday...continues to lie with the next upper level storms
system working onto the Plains. Models remain in generally
decent agreement big picture-wise with the upper level pattern
through the weekend...showing the low pressure system currently
over the Pac NW digging south as it shifts east...by 12Z Monday
showing the main troughing working through the Rockies. Still
plenty of differences between models beyond then, with how the
pattern evolves as the system moves through the Plains...with
recent runs having trended more toward a messy passage, and
instead of one solid low, there is the potential for a few
embedded vort maxes in the overall troughing. Recent trends have
shown the potential for a first push of more widespread
precipitation late Sunday night into the daytime hours
Monday...with chances perhaps more scattered in nature Monday
night into Tuesday as the main trough axis/various embedded
lobes make the main push east through the Plains. Confidence in
the finer details this far out remains pretty low...will be
interesting to see how models trend in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The TAF period begins with VFR conditions that deteriorate to
MVFR starting around 3Z for KEAR and 4Z for KGRI as low clouds
fill in from the south. As the lower clouds fill in, light
showers and drizzle could reduce reduce visibility to around 4SM
and drop ceilings to around 1000ft. Low clouds will continue to
fill in during the early morning hours dropping ceilings to IFR
levels, around 800ft, starting around 10Z for KEAR and 11Z for
KGRI. Drizzle and showers continue to be a possibility
throughout the rest of the TAF period. Heavier precipitation
events could drop visibilities as low as 1SM and ceilings to
LIFR conditions in the 200-400ft range. Due to uncertainty of
the placement of the showers and drizzle both periods were left
as PROB30 groups instead of prevailing. Light easterly winds
will be present throughout the entire TAF period.



&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...McGrew