596
FXUS63 KGID 010541
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Steady light to moderate rainfall early this afternoon will
  become heavy at times this afternoon/evening (3-11PM). Tornado
  threat (4-11PM) mainly KS zones.

- Flash Flood Watch remains in effect (primarily south of Hwy
  30) for potential of 2-4", localized 4-7", of total rainfall.

- Most of the rain will have ended by 3 AM tonight. Flood Watch
  for Nebraska may need to be ended early. Additional rainfall
  on Thursday appears to be more focused on Kansas and will not
  be as heavy as today.

- Much drier, and seasonably cool conditions (Highs 60-75F /
  Lows 45-55), settle in for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Tornado/Wind Threat This Evening...

A northward lifting warm front could make it as far north as
Osborne/Mankato/Hebron by this evening. There will be at least a
limited tornado threat along and south of this warm front given
strong low level wind shear (0-1km SRH 250-350 m2/s2) and
marginal instability (500-1500 J/KG). Limiting severe weather
factors will be extensive cloud cover limiting overall
instability and widespread precipitation shield lacking the
more severe conducive discrete convection. A few breaks in the
clouds across southern Kansas will likely expand into central
Kansas, but it is unlikely that we will see any breaks in the
clouds across north central Kansas, which will limit instability
and severe potential. Am not really concerned about hail in
this more tropical set up. Our primary tornado threat will be
near and south of that warm front (Osborne to Hebron) between
4-11PM. Given the tropical environment our boundary layer will
likely remain unstable for several hours after sunset allowing
for tornado threat to persist after dark. Thunderstorms will
likely not display very impressive reflectivity signatures, but
given the strong shear and low cloud bases we will have to keep
a close eye on possible velocity rotation signatures.


Heavy Rain/Flooding Threat...

We have been hitting on this heavy rain/flooding threat for
several days. The heaviest/majority of the rain will fall over
the next 6 to 12 hours (3-11pm). The rain will first increase
in intensity across Kansas and then lift north into southern
Nebraska as we head through the evening. The heaviest rain is
most likely south of an Osceola, Doniphan, Holdrege line.
Along and south of that line we expect widespread 1-3" rainfall
amounts. However, the bigger concern is the potential for
training thunderstorms resulting in localized very heavy
rainfall amounts as high as 4-7". These heaviest amounts will
be very limited in area, but of significant impact. Many
forecast models hint at training storms with localized high end
amounts over 5". Given the recent heavy rain over the past week
and saturated soil conditions across much of the area, areas
that do realize these highest amounts (4-7") could see
considerable flash flooding. Anyone along or south of the above
mentioned line should at least be prepared for the possibility
of these localized higher end amounts.

The rain will gradually diminish and end in many areas after
midnight. We could see some rain redevelop across mainly Kansas
during the day on Thursday, but of less intensity that today.
Technically the Flood Watch will continue into Thursday, but
may end early across Nebraska zones if current forecast trends
continue. There could be ongoing flooding from tonight that
persists in some areas for several days. Additional rainfall
amounts on Thursday will be heaviest across Kansas (0.25-1.00")
and lightest across Nebraska (generally 0-0.25").


Friday through Wednesday...

Not going to spend much time on this period as the weather
generally becomes quiet with mainly dry and seasonably cool
conditions. There is good confidence that most days through
Monday will see highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. We do expect slightly warmer conditions Tuesday
through the end of next week (upper 60s - mid 70s) but with
higher uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Though the sensors at KEAR/KGRI are not currently registering
sub-VFR ceilings, we suspect that the low-level stratus should
fill in just enough to keep IFR or even LIFR ceilings around for
a majority of the night. Models have recently shown a quicker
improvement of cloud bases across the morning hours Thursday.
Clouds will likely scatter out before 22z. The heaviest amounts
of rain have come and gone with a few scattered showers
possible to be in and out of the vicinity mainly through 16z.
Visibilities are not likely to drop below 6 miles tonight.
Winds out of the north to northeast tonight will soon be
expected to increase. Windspeeds overnight between 10-15kts
with gusts as high as 25-30kts will be possible between 12z and
0z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ048-049-060>064-
     072>077-082>087.
KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Stump