121
FXUS63 KGID 261138
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Should finally see a break in the damp/dreary conditions and
  have a chance to dry out some this weekend. However, some low
  end chances (20-30%) for isolated showers/storms remain for
  areas mainly E of Hwy 281 this afternoon.

- Areas of fog will be possible each of the next couple of
  nights, and some of this fog may be dense.

- Much of the day on Monday currently looks dry, but another
  system will bring high rain chances (70-90%) Monday night into
  Tuesday. It is uncertain how quickly this system will move
  out, so wet conditions may persist off and on through midweek.
  Will need to monitor potential for more hydro issues given the
  persistent nature of the wet weather pattern.

- Temperatures will remain mostly in the 70s/80s through Monday,
  then cool off into the 60s/70s for mid to late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Vast majority of rain has exited the area to the E/NE this
morning, but not before dumping some heavy rain amounts of
3-4.5" across portions of north central KS. The Flash Flood
Warning should be able to expire on time.

The region should finally get a chance to dry out some this
weekend, with only isolated, generally low-end 20-30% chances
for some isolated showers and weak storms this afternoon. Latest
hi-res guidance continues to point towards areas E of Hwy 281
as having this potential. Most areas won`t get this rain this
afternoon, and those that do should only see light amounts.
Portions of the forecast area, particularly S/SW of the Tri-
Cities, should see a decent amount of sunshine today, which will
allow highs to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Elsewhere, suspect clouds will be more stubborn, with partly to
mostly cloudy skies keeping highs a bit cooler in the lower to
mid 70s. This is generally the same idea for Sunday (cooler
NE/more clouds, warmer SW/more sun). Winds will be on the light
side both days this weekend, so even a little bit of sunshine
will make it feel pretty nice - esp. compared to the past
few/several days. Hopefully we can find some natural Vitamin D.

General pattern recognition and recent rainfall is giving me
increasing confidence for areas of fog at least tonight, and
possibly Sunday night, as well. Not sure if the fog will be
limited to mainly W half of CWA (as indicated by 06Z HRRR), or
more widespread...but I do think it`s pretty likely that
whatever fog does form will be thick enough to warrant a Dense
Fog Advisory. The western half of CWA idea conceptually makes
some sense, as this is where clouds are most likely to clear out
and allow for some radiational cooling amidst weak upslope
flow. Hopefully model guidance and next shift can hone in on
this a bit more.

Monday daytime hours still appear to remain mostly dry, but yet
another upper disturbance with copious amounts of moisture will
bring scattered to widespread rain back into the forecast Monday
night into Tuesday. Appears quite likely this system will have a
strong tropical Pacific moisture connection, so efficient and
moderate to heavy rain will be possible once again. Will have
SOME time to dry out this weekend, but getting into time of year
where it`s definitely a slower process than during the summer.
As such, will need to monitor the potential for renewed hydro
concerns. To this point, it`s the follow on disturbances mid to
late next week that could be more problematic. Guidance is
mixed, but there are some indications we could be dealing with
intense slug of moisture that is the remnants of Hurricane Polo
sometime in the Wednesday-Thursday. Something to monitor as we
head into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data continuing to show southwesterly
flow in place this afternoon across the area...set up between
high pressure sitting over the TX Gulf Coast, with ridging
extending northward through through MN, and troughing over the
western CONUS. This troughing is being driven by a couple of
systems, one just working its way into the Pac NW, the other
making its way northeast out of the Desert SW/Srn Plains. During
the daytime hours so far today...any scattered showers had
pushed east during the early morning hours, with little other
than drizzle left behind. This has mainly affected the ENE half
of the forecast area...where satellite has shown more stubborn
cloud cover and area obs have shown ceilings remaining under 1k
ft. Winds across the area remain south- southeasterly, and
overall light, as we remain between sfc high pressure over much
of the eastern CONUS and troughing/low pressure through the High
Plains into TX. By the time its all said and done, forecast
highs won`t work out too bad...NErn areas under more cloud cover
have struggled to get out of the mid 60s, further south has had
a few peaks of sun, and lower-mid 70s have worked their way in.

This evening through the weekend...

Seeing some showers and storms moving northward through south-
southwestern KS, driven by increased lift associated with that
upper level shortwave disturbance roughly in the NM/CO/OK/TX
border area. Models remain in good agreement showing this
disturbance continuing on that northeastward track, bringing
increasing chances for precip to the forecast area this
evening/tonight. Aided later this evening by an increasing
SSWrly low-level jet, forecast has pretty high chances going
(70-90 percent)...with models continuing to focus the overall
best chances roughly over central/eastern portions of the
forecast area. Will be better chances for thunderstorms, with
models showing perhaps up to 1000 j/kg nosing into the
area...and while some storms could be on the stronger side, the
overall threat for severe weather remains low. The main concern
with these precip chances would be with the additional
rainfall...if areas heavier rates happen to track over any areas
that were part of the swath of 3-5 inches from the past 2 days,
could result in some flooding concerns.

Through the overnight hours into Saturday morning...if the
higher res models hold onto their trend, have the higher
precipitation chances hanging on too long in the forecast. Have
60+ percent chances lingering across areas east of HWY 281
through sunrise Saturday...some models say activity cloud push
east by closer to 09Z. This is talking showers/storms...not the
potential fog/drizzle/low ceilings that could linger hours
longer.

Have diminishing preciptiation chances during the day on
Saturday...but couldn`t totally dry out the afternoon hours, as
models have been pretty persistent showing another weaker push
of mid-upper level potentially sparking off some afternoon
showers/storms across areas mainly east of Highway 281.
Especially for the western half of the forecast area...models
showing better potential for more sun...the further east you go,
that will be tougher to do, especially with the chance for
additional precip developing during the afternoon. Because of
that uncertainty with clouds/precip, not a ton of confidence in
the forecast highs for Saturday...which currently sit in the low
70s in the NE to low 80s in the far SSW.

Forecast finally dries out for Sunday...and models remain in
good agreement with that, as upper level ridging builds in
across the area...set up between areas of low pressure affecting
each coast. Expecting generally partly cloudy skies, highs
mainly in the 70s.

New work week...

This upper level ridging centered through the Plains is short-
lived, with models in good agreement showing southwesterly
flow returning on Monday, driven by that western CONUS upper low
that looks to dig into southern CA. Models showing that as that
low digs further south, a separate northern stream shortwave
disturbance will be pushing through the Central/Nrn Rockies will
help drive increasing precipitation chances. Do still have a
small area of low chances (20 percent) over far WNW portions of
the area Monday afternoon, but the overall better chances look
to hold off until Monday evening- overnight.

A potentially more active/wet period returns from Tuesday
on...still plenty of things to iron out in the coming days.
Will say that compared to 24hrs ago, there is better agreement
between models with the main upper low, its evolution and trek
across the Central Plains. At 12Z Tuesday, this upper low looks
to be roughly in the CA/AZ/NV border area...trekking further
into AZ/NM by sunrise Wednesday...then turning a bit more
northeast into CO by 12Z Thursday. Additional shortwave
disturbances out ahead of the system, and eventually just
greater larger-scale lift as it be moves in keep precipitation
chances around each day through the mid-week...and because there
are details to iron out, those chances are very broad in
nature. Later Wednesday and more into Thursday the upper low
itself looks to cross through the Central Plains...but the exact
track/timing needs some refinement in the coming days.
Agreement with the track isn`t too bad, potentially bringing the
upper low right over the forecast area...differences are larger
with the timing...as the ECMWF is much slower, keeping it
around well into Friday, vs the GFS which largely clears the
forecast area Thursday night. This could be another longer
duration, heavier rain maker...will just have to see how models
trend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: IFR to LIFR CIGs and mainly MVFR to VFR VSBYs expected
this morning before some improvement for the aftn hours. General
consensus is for a return to MVFR CIGs by around 20Z, or so.
Can`t rule out an isolated shower/weak storm this afternoon into
early evening, mainly at GRI. Winds will be light out of the
E/SE. Confidence: Medium to high.

Tonight: Will likely see IFR to LIFR CIGs and/or VSBYs develop
after sunset, and particularly after midnight. EAR may have more
potential for dense fog than GRI, which may just remain as very
low stratus/LIFR CIGs...but it will depend on where the clearing
line is by around sunset. Regardless, have fairly high
confidence there will be either very low CIGs or dense fog.
Winds will be light and variable.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Thies