246
FXUS63 KGID 310520
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers with some thunder will continue through
  the overnight hours, but it will be more of a light to
  moderate rain lacking the high rainfall rates necessary for
  flooding. Therefore, will cancel the flood watch early.

- High temperatures through Friday will be in the mid 60s to low
  80s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 40s to mid
  60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Although we have seen some appreciable rainfall totals to over 3
inches in some spots, it`s been more of a moderate/steady rain
and is lacking the higher rates that would result in flooding
from runoff. Although rainfall will continue off and on through
the night, it will continue to be more of a light to moderate
rainfall lacking the higher rates. Therefore, it`s becoming more
unlikely that we will see enough runoff to result in flooding
and thus we will be cancelling the flood watch with this
forecast update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Today through Monday night...

An upper level trough is over the eastern part of the country with
an upper low centered over South Dakota and Nebraska. Dewpoint
temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas are in the 60s. This moisture in the air combined
with enhanced upper lift from the upper low has resulted in showers
and thunderstorms developing and moving across the area. There is
concern for flooding with rain moving over areas that have recently
received a lot of rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of
the area until noon on Sunday. The bulk of the rainfall will likely
occur this afternoon into tonight; although, additional rainfall is
expected Sunday into Monday. There is some uncertainty as to which
area(s) will receive the most rainfall from this system, but
generally expect total rainfall amounts to get up to 1.50 - 3+
inches across much of the area. High temperatures today will only be
in the 60s and 70s with the cloud cover and rain. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s.

The upper low will still be over the region on Sunday with more rain
developing and moving across the area. Although rainfall amounts and
intensity are expected to be less than those today, some isolated
minor flooding concerns may still exist Sunday even after the Flood
Watch expires at noon. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to
range from the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s. The rainfall is expected to
continue into Sunday night with low temperatures in the mid 50s to
low 60s. The rain will be decreasing across the area on Monday but
will still be possible (15% to near 60% chance) especially for
locations along and east of Highway 81. Winds will shift towards the
north on/by Monday as the upper low moves east. High temperatures on
Monday will range from the mid 60s across the east to the mid 70s
across the west. A surface high will be across the area Monday night
with light and somewhat variable surface winds. Low temperatures
Monday night will be in the low to upper 50s.

Tuesday through Friday...

South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be
on the backside of an upper trough on Tuesday with clearing skies.
High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be in the low 70s to
low 80s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will generally range from
the mid to upper 50s. An upper low moving southward over the Upper
Midwest will bring a cold front into Nebraska and Kansas on
Wednesday. This front will result in high temperatures on Wednesday
ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. A surface high will move just
to the east of the area Wednesday night with temperatures across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas dropping
into the 40s. The big upper trough will dominate the eastern part of
the country on Thursday with Nebraska and Kansas on the backside of
the trough. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to range from
the mid 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures Thursday night will
generally range from the mid 40s to low 50s with mostly clear skies.
Another cold front is expected to begin pushing into the area on
Friday with northerly winds and highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR ceilings continue through Sunday morning (possibly dipping
to LIFR at times). Scattered showers will also persist in the
area, but the threat for lightning is fairly low...therefor the
PROB30 groups were pulled from this TAF issuance. Also cannot
rule out some patchy fog...although that appears more favorable
to the west of EAR/GRI.

Ceilings improve during the day on Sunday...and EAR could even
see some peaks of sunshine during the late afternoon and early
evening. Additional low stratus is expected to return Sunday
night into Monday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Mangels