663
FXUS63 KGID 162014
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
314 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms tonight are expected to develop across portions of
  southern Nebraska and mainly north central Kansas between
  primarily 9PM and 2AM.

- Most storms should remain sub-severe, though gusty winds up to
  60MPH and hail up to 1" is possible in a few more strong to
  marginally severe storms.

- The cool down continues Thursday with highs in the 70s. Temperatures
  are then expected to quickly warm back up Friday. Highs could
  approach and in a few areas exceed 100 degrees Monday through
  next Wednesday (for a few locations south of I-80).

- Afternoon to nighttime storm chances return Friday (25-55%) and
  Saturday night (30-50%) with chances generally staying below
  25% thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025


...Tonight & Tomorrow...


Overcast skies from low-level status crawling down from the north
blanket 3/4th of the area this afternoon, minimizing the diurnal
heating today. Broad northeasterly winds behind yesterdays cold
frontal passage will remain on the lighter end this evening and
tonight (<15 MPH) with directions gradually turning northeast
overnight and then east early Thursday morning. Lows tonight are
expected to fall to their lowest point in the next at least 7 days,
if not longer (mid 50s to mid 60s).

Another broad shortwave disturbance sliding in from the west tonight,
evident by a few mid to higher level clouds shooting out from the
eastern rockies, will provide some support for yet another night of
storms. The region of developing elevated storm between 9PM and 2AM
tonight will favor southern Nebraska and our Kansas areas. Though
some models (HRRR/RAP) do indicate the potential for a few storms as
far north as I80, given the current position of last nights frontal
boundary across north central Kansas, this scenario appears less
likely. Other models including the NAMNEST, GFS and ECMWF point
towards a line/cluster of storms firing near and south of the state
line. With south to southeasterly storm motions, our PoPs increase
heading south. Much of our northern half of the forecast area should
stay dry tonight.

Though a few of these storms late tonight could support marginally
severe characteristics (60MPH wind gusts and 1" hail), the vast majority
of storms will not be expected to become severe. Areas of locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. The SPC severe weather outlook
includes our Kansas and far southern Nebraska locations in a
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as well as a WPC Marginal (5%) and
Slight (15%) excessive rainfall outlook for these locations.

Drier conditions all around will be expected Thursday. The
continuation of overcast skies with weak easterly surface flow, less
than 10-15 MPH, will allow anomalously cool temperatures, around 15-
20 degrees below normal for July standards, to fill into the full
area. Highs Thursday are expected to top out in the 70s. Though a
few nighttime pop-up storms (15-25%) could sweep by parts of mainly
north central Kansas and a few eastern Nebraska areas late Thursday
night, most of the area, however, is expected to remain dry.


...Friday through Sunday...


The next best areawide precipitation/storm chances will be possible
Friday afternoon/night (25-55%) and again Saturday afternoon to
night (30-50%). Specific characteristics or locations of these storms are
not very clear at the moment as these storms look to have a more
random distribution rather than an organized nature to them
(generally weaker forcing).

What is known is that return of southerly warm air advecting winds
with a few breaks in the clouds will sharply warm things back up
staring Friday afternoon. This 15 to 20 degree jump up in heat will
carry over into the weekend with highs staying in the mid 80s to
upper 90s. Weak zonal flow aloft with a building ridge down south
will help continue this multi-day warmup over into the first half of
next week.


...Monday and Beyond...


The south central U.S. ridging pattern should become the dominate
pattern over the Central Plains. The jetstream is expected to stay
north of the area and centered over the Northern Plains. Though a
few weak PoPs return each day from a few afternoon pop up storm
chances, the overall first part of next week looks more dry than not
with PoPs staying below 25%. Temperatures will be expected to
continue to rise across the full area with a few areas south of I-80
approaching and potentially exceeding 100 degrees Monday through
next Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Blanket low-level broken to overcast stratus is expected to
remain in place over the next 24 hours. Ceilings starting out
between 10-15kft, are expected to rise into high end MVFR
conditions after 22z and later out of MVFR criteria for a few
hours late this evening to early night (between mainly 3-7z).
MVFR ceilings are expected to return after 7z, potentially
reaching low end MVFR conditions around 10z through 16z Thursday
morning.

Perception/storm chances remain minimal tonight though not
impossible (25-30%). A few models show a narrow band of storms
developing near the terminals between 1-4z, though the lack of
model consistence keeps confidence too low to include.

10-15kt north to northeasterly winds today will dampen some
overnight, gradually turning east by Thursday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump