481
FXUS63 KGID 312339
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
639 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers mainly tonight and Monday morning
  should not deposit more than 0.1-0.3" of precipitation if
  that.

- Precip chances for the period range from 20% towards our far southwestern
  areas up to 40-60% in our far northeastern areas (only 30-40%
  chances for the Tri-Cities).

- Anomalously cool temperatures are expected to remain through
  the rest of the week as a mid-week cold front reinforces a
  cooler and drier airmass in place (upper 60s to low 80s
  highs).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025


Tonight and Monday...


Gloomy skies continue to linger over a majority of the area this
afternoon, though a few breaks have started to appear across far
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. All that remains
precipitation wise is a few light showers sprinkled here and there.
Highs today top out in the mid 60s up to low 70s and up to the upper
70s for areas that have less coverage in cloud coverage.

Though precipitation chances linger through most of the day Monday,
the best period of time for any last measurable precipitation
(mainly less than <0.15") should occur overnight tonight and into
Monday morning as a few outer precipitation bands repass through a
few mainly northeastern parts of the area. Not all places will have
an equal chance of seeing precipitation as a sharp northeast to
southwest gradient of PoPs lies with chances in our far southwestern
areas remaining below 20% and with chances no grater than 40-60%
across our far northeastern parts of the area (30-40% for Tri-
Cities). Any measurable precipitation outside of this period will
likely occur only for a short, brief duration and in more isolated
rather than widespread areas this evening or Monday afternoon.
Chances with this forecast cycle has generally decreased with most
places now only expected to receive 0.1-0.2" more of precipitation
if even that between this afternoon and Monday (less moisture
available than expected). In reality, more places should remain dry
rather than wet.

Given the continuation of light winds tonight with high surface
relative humidity (RH >95%), the redevelopment of fog overnight into
Monday morning will be very likely again tonight. Visibilities could
drop as low as 1/2 to even 1/4 of a mile in a few places. A Dense
Fog Advisory may be considered in the next forecast cycle if
confidence of widespread 1/4 mile visibilities increase.


Tuesday and Wednesday...


The last of the lingering light showers out east is expected to
finally clear all areas by Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies in addition
will return for the afternoon and evening hours. Highs for the day
should range the mid 70s to low 80s with light and variable winds
maintaining throughout the day.

Another pattern shift up is expected to fall Wednesday as a powering
upper-level low dives into the midwest, lowering heights and cooling
the mid to upper levels. Effects from this disturbance will be felt
all the way down at the surface as a cold front drops into the
region early Wednesday. Clouds should refill the sky with slightly
cooler temperatures mixing in (upper 60s to mid 70s highs). A small
15-25% precipitation chance returns for the daytime Wednesday as a
few scattered showers/storms can`t be fully ruled out from the
frontal passage. The better chances lie towards the east of the
area. Winds behind the front will be steered north, helping mix in a
drier (continental polar) air mass down from the Northern Plains
(50s dewpoints). Temperatures may reach their coldest point of the
week Wednesday night as lows fall into the mid 40s to low 50s.


Thursday and Beyond...


The rest of the extended period remains dry with similar conditions
each day. Despite clearer skies Friday, a reinforcing front Friday
should keep temperatures in the 70s for the rest of the week. The
next precipitation chance, only 10-20%, lies Saturday night.

The 12z 500mb LREF cluster analysis shows two diverging signals
developing with the strength of the midwest upper-level low. The day-
5 (Friday) leading cluster explains 35% of the variance primarily
from the GEFS (american ensemble), pointing towards a deeper low
compared to the second leading cluster ensemble 26% of the variance
from primarily the ENS (european ensemble). If this scenario plays
out, a stronger low could offer slightly cooler temperatures and
potentially more active winds. Both signals, however, continue to
point towards drier conditions Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR-LIFR conditions expected during TAF period. Stratus will
redevelop this evening, first becoming MVFR then IFR by
midnight, and LIFR after midnight. Additionally, after midnight
patchy fog is also expected to develop. At times this fog may
result in visbility down to 1 mile or less, but confidence in
placement or duration of dense fog is not high enough to include
in a FM group at this time. Have indicated this potential with a
TEMPO group during the most likely time for dense fog. Fog will
dissipate during the mid-morning hours. Stratus will slowly
rise during the morning hours, becoming MVFR during the mid-late
morning hours on Monday. Additionally scattered showers are
possible throughout the TAF period. Confidence in the timing of
any showers is not high enough to include in a FM/PROB30 group
but showers would only be capable of producing a brief, light
rain.

Northeasterly winds will become light and variable overnight.
Northerly winds will increase during the mid-late morning hours,
with sustained winds of 8-10kts Monday afternoon.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis