290
FXUS63 KGID 301147
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring a high chance (60-80%) for showers and
  thunderstorms this evening, some of which may be strong to
  severe. Damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH is the main risk.

- The cold front will finally usher in some drier, more
  comfortable, air on Friday that will continue through the
  weekend. Friday will actually feel brisk/refreshing with
  breezy north winds gusting around 30 MPH.

- Warmer temperatures begin to build back into the region on
  Monday. Ensembles favor near to above normal temperatures for
  much of next week.

- After tonight, the next chance for moisture isn`t until
  Tuesday-Wednesday, and it appears to be a fairly limited
  chance at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Expect a considerable amount of cloud cover this morning, along
with isolated to scattered showers and weak storms, within an
increasing low level warm aid advection regime ahead of weak
upper disturbance moving out of NE Colorado. Does not appear
storms this morning will be as widespread or heavy as 24 hours
ago, but continued high amounts of atmospheric moisture will
support brief heavy downpours under any storms that do form.
Expect a period of subsidence to allow for decreasing clouds
this afternoon and a quick spike in temperatures. In fact, far
SW zones (that clear out the soonest) may make a run towards the
triple digits. Steady SErly low level flow will maintain the
muggy conditions...at least until a cold front arrives tonight.

Feel the 06Z HRRR has a decent handle of how things are playing
out this morning...which gives me confidence that it provides a
reasonable idea of what to expect this evening and overnight.
The aforementioned subsidence/clearing should allow for moderate
to strong instability to develop ahead of the cold front that`s
slated to arrive in our N right around 00Z. Several CAMs have
been quite consistent that a broken line of thunderstorms will
develop along the front by mid to late afternoon off to our N,
then sweep through our area during the evening and overnight,
generally between 00Z-06Z. 30-40kt of deep layer shear is
forecast to overlap the strong instability ahead of the front,
which will probably be sufficient for at least portions of the
line to become severe. Can`t rule out some large hail, but the
linear forcing and seasonably high freezing levels argue for
damaging winds to be the primary threat. PWATs pooling ahead of
the front to as high as 2" will also support very heavy
downpours/locally heavy rain...but the progressive nature of the
convection should keep hydro concerns to a minimum.

Main story Friday into the weekend will be the much drier and
also cooler air that will be advected into the region on brisk
northerly winds, perhaps gusting as high as 30-35 MPH Friday
afternoon. Believe it or not, far W/NW portions may briefly dip
into the 50s for Saturday AM. Certainly looks like a great
weekend to get outdoors and enjoy some pleasant late summer wx!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A mid-to-upper level shortwave trough ejecting out from the
northern Rockies tomorrow will bring some mid-level vorticity
and cold air advection to the region, helping to increase
instability and buoyancy (2,000-3,500J/kg of MUCAPE) across the
area. In addition, surface pressure falls ahead of the shortwave
disturbance, will help organize an around 1006mb surface
cyclone across north central Nebraska and central South Dakota.
As this cyclone strengthens across the afternoon and evening
hours, a surface cold front will undergoing frontogenesis across
central Nebraska/Kansas. This feature will likely serve as the
primary mechanism for evening thunderstorm development, likely
driving a line of convection across a majority of the area from
northwest to southeast between mainly 7PM and 1AM. Given the
high instability (>2,000J/kg of CAPE), steepening low-level
lapse rates (up to 8-9C/km) and 25-40kts of bulk shear (EBWD);
the potential for severe weather will remain. The main concern
would be for strong to damaging wind gusts as high as 60-70MPH.
Though not the primary concern, a few of the stronger storms may
still be able to grow tall enough to form hail stones up to the
size of quarters. The Storm Prediction Center includes the full
area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) with most of central
Nebraska areas near and north of I-80 included in a slight risk
(level 2 of 5).

Beyond the chance for precipitation Thursday, winds out of the
southeast may become breezy at times, gusting as high as 20-30MPH
during the afternoon hours. Highs, despite the mostly cloudy to
overcast skies will still be expected to raise as high as the upper
80s and 90s. Following the exit of the storms Thursday night, the
forecast remains dry through at least Monday (20-50% precipitation
chance returns Tuesday night). Southwest U.S. ridging across the
weekend will help fend off most precipitation chances as the jet
stream is shoved further northward. Breezy conditions will be
expected to return Friday afternoon (northerly gusts as high as 25-
35MPH) as the surface low pull east and away. lighter winds over the
weekend will come as higher pressure resettles back into region.
Temperatures behind the front Friday and Saturday should drop back
down to the 80s. Warming temperatures in response to clearing skies,
will warm temperatures back up to the upper 80s to mid 90s for the
start off next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Today: IFR stratus and perhaps a stray shower this morning
through at least 14-15Z. Should see gradually improving CIGs
towards midday, with mainly VFR conditions expected for the
afternoon. Winds will be out of the SE around 10kt.

Tonight: A line of storms along a cold front is forecast to
arrive between 02Z and 05Z. Strong, gusty winds and at least a
brief CIG/VSBY reduction to MVFR will be possible along the
leading edge. Storms should largely exit the terminal space by
around 05-06Z. Late tonight, models suggest another batch of IFR
stratus to develop behind the cold front. Winds will shift from
SE early this evening, to variable in the storms, then NWrly
after midnight. Winds will be on the breezy side for Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Thies
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Thies