994
FXUS63 KGID 301135
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms and fog possible through the morning hours.


- Another round of scattered showers/storms are possible tonight/Saturday,
  though this does not look to be a complete washout.

- A stronger system moves into the area next week bringing more
  rain to the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Low stratus resides over the area this morning with temperatures
currently in the 50s. A low level jet has aided the development of
scattered showers/storms across mainly east/southeastern portions of
the area. These showers/storms are favored to increase in coverage
over the next few hours, but remain focused on east/southeast
portions of the area. Fog is currently confined to far southwestern
portions of the area (Plainville-Cambridge). Around sunrise, fog
increases in coverage over the area as it begins to lift north. The
exact density of this fog lifting north is uncertain at this time,
but some sub 1 mile fog is plausible. Scattered showers/storms
decrease in coverage during the late morning-afternoon, with most
areas favored to be dry this afternoon. Widespread low cloud
coverage prevents most areas from seeing a notable temperature rise
this afternoon, with highs in the upper 50s-60s across
central/northwestern portions of the area. The exception will be
across far southeastern portions of the area (closest to a
stationary front) where highs may peak in the low 70s. The next
round of rain lifts into the area from the southwest this evening-
tonight. This round of rain is favored to be more widespread than
today/current rain, but not everywhere may see rain. Fog chances
continue tonight, mainly for areas north of Interstate 80.

The coverage of showers/storms decreases throughout the day on
Saturday, but at least isolated showers are likely to linger
throughout the day. This results in a seasonable-seasonably cool day
with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds on Saturday will be
breezy, gusting 20-25mph. Off and on rain chances continue into
Sunday morning, though low instability may keep rain as showers
rather than weak thunderstorms. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper
50s to upper 60s with southeasterly winds of 10-15mph. More
robust/deeper troughing moves into the Plains next week, bringing
another round of rain to the area. While there remains some spread
in model guidance on the exact evolution of the trough/associated
surface low, the highest chance for rain is Sunday night-Monday,
with chances decreasing during the day on Tuesday as the low moves
into the Midwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Currently through tonight...

Been an overall quiet day across the area today...though
satellite imagery shows a stark contrast in sky cover from
north to south. Low-level stratus that started working its way
into the area late last night has remained stubbornly in place
over southern half, keeping skies overcast...vs the northern
half which has had no shortage of sun. Looking aloft, flow
across the region remains west- southwesterly...with broad
ridging over much of the southeastern CONUS, while a stronger
area of low pressure is making its way into the Pac NW region.
To our south-southwest, satellite imagery showing a shortwave
disturbance making its way north through the TX/NM/Mex border
region. The overall surface pattern is on the weaker side...the
main frontal boundary is draped from WSW-ENE across central KS,
with weak high pressure centered over the Dakotas. This has kept
winds easterly across the area today, with speeds mainly 10-
15, with an occasional gust closer to 20 MPH. Western portions
of north central KS have been struggling to even get to 60
today, rest of the area has been more in the mid 60s.

This evening and tonight...still have the potential for some
precipitation to work it way NNE through the region, driven by
increasing warm air/moisture advection as the low-level jet
ramps up. Models not showing any overly strong LLJ, generally
around 30kts, and even at this point still showing some
differences with just how much coverage there ends up being.
Expecting coverage to be on the scattered side of things...with
models still focusing the better chances mainly near/east of HWY
281. Can`t rule out some of this activity being thunderstorms
with instability also building back north with time...and a
stronger storm is not out of the question, but the overall
threat for severe weather remains low.

Friday through the weekend...

Some of this activity from tonight may linger across especially
eastern areas to start off the day on Friday...but most models
show a lull between this round and the next working in later
in the day. Really hasn`t been any significant changes with
models through Friday, with the main focus being that above
mentioned upper level disturbance over TX/NM/Mex...which will
continue trekking northward with time, roughly reaching into srn
KS by evening. Still some differences between models with the
timing of the main shield of precipitation reaching the southern
edge of the forecast area...could be seeing at least scattered
activity already by mid-late afternoon, with the better chances
looking to focus mainly after 00Z into the overnight hours. Some
models are also showing the chance that this system weakens
slightly as it pushes north through the area...potentially
diminishing the overall coverage of activity with time. Similar
to tonight...instability in the area keeps the threat for
thunderstorms around, but the threat for severe weather remains
low. Higher dewpoints/better moisture building in will help any
activity being efficient rain-makers...so any spots that have a
stronger storm or any training could pick up at least an inch of
rain through Friday night.

Confidence in precipitation chances for the upcoming weekend are
not high...with models difference with the timing of this
latest system working east of the area and when precip wanes.
Some models are pretty slow, keeping the potential for at least
scattered preciptiation around much of/if not all of the day on
Saturday, a few lingering even longer. Forecast currently has
much of the day Sunday dry with some weak shortwave ridging
moving through...but any break would likely be brief, as chances
ramp back up Sunday night.

As far as temperatures go, not looking at any notable
swings...but with the plentiful precip chances and potential
cloud cover make for a lower confidence forecast. Expecting
highs generally in the 60s Fri-Sun...depending on precip timing
into the daytime hours, some spots may struggle to even get to
60.

New work week...

Main story Sunday night, and moreso into Monday-
Tuesday...continues to lie with the next upper level storms
system working onto the Plains. Models remain in generally
decent agreement big picture-wise with the upper level pattern
through the weekend...showing the low pressure system currently
over the Pac NW digging south as it shifts east...by 12Z Monday
showing the main troughing working through the Rockies. Still
plenty of differences between models beyond then, with how the
pattern evolves as the system moves through the Plains...with
recent runs having trended more toward a messy passage, and
instead of one solid low, there is the potential for a few
embedded vort maxes in the overall troughing. Recent trends have
shown the potential for a first push of more widespread
precipitation late Sunday night into the daytime hours
Monday...with chances perhaps more scattered in nature Monday
night into Tuesday as the main trough axis/various embedded
lobes make the main push east through the Plains. Confidence in
the finer details this far out remains pretty low...will be
interesting to see how models trend in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MFR-IFR CIGs favored throughout majority of TAF period. MVFR
stratus is anticipated to lower to IFR later this morning as IFR
CIGs move in from the southwest, first impacting KEAR. Have used
TEMPO groups for this to indicate uncertainty on timing. As CIGs
lower, fog may also develop with visibility dropping to MVFR.
Recent model guidance favoring the IFR CIGs lifting north of
KGRI/KEAR this afternoon and resulting in a window of MVFR CIGs.
After sunset, showers are expected to move into the area from
the south/southwest. As this rain arrives, CIGs are expected to
return to IFR. Late in the TAF period, IFR stratus lifts off to
the north/northwest and may result in a window of VFR, though
the timing is uncertain at this time. For now have a prevailing
VFR group with a TEMPO MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Davis