455
FXUS63 KGID 032346
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
546 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The main rain band, currently east of Highway 281, will
  continue to gradually shift eastward through the afternoon,
  bringing an end to the rainfall area wide later this evening

- Strong northerly winds, gusting up to 40-45 MPH, will
  gradually decrease through the afternoon and evening hours.

- Aside from the slight chance (15-20%) of rain showers tomorrow
  evening into early Thursday morning, the rest of the forecast
  period is expected to be mostly dry.

- Temperatures are expected to be near-normal throughout the
  forecast period, with highs generally in the 50s and into the
  60s by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Today and Tonight ...

The main story of this forecast package is the evolution of the
upper-level trough that is currently situated through the
southern Great Plains. Amidst this parent trough is an embedded
shortwave, currently lifting to the northeast. This shortwave,
and its surface low-pressur center in northwestern Missouri, supporting
the dreary conditions across much of the region, with the main
rain band just east of Highway 281. As this low pressure center
continues to move northeastward, this rain band will also slide
eastward over the next few hours, bringing an end to the
rainfall area wide this evening (though some western locations
have already seen an end to this rain). Likewise, strong
northerly winds, gusting up to 40-45 MPH, will gradually
decrease through the afternoon and evening hours, with gusts
above 25 MPH eventually tapering off tomorrow morning. However,
the low stratus layer is expected to continue through the night
for most of the area (especially areas east of Highway 183).
This cloud cover, along with the cold air advection behind the
front, will limit the temperature fluctuation today, with highs
in the upper 40s to mid 50s (a temperature fluctuation of up to
5 degrees). Low temperatures tomorrow morning will primarily be
in the 30s, with about a 30-60% chance of seeing temperatures
drop below freezing northwest of a line from roughly Bertrand to
Ord (which will largely depend on how much clearing will be on
the back side of this system).

Tomorrow Into Thursday...

As the shortwave trough continues to move off northeast, the
cloudy skies will start to clear the area by mid morning
tomorrow. However, high temperatures tomorrow will still be
limited to the upper 40s to 50s, as breezy northwesterly winds
gusting up to 25-30 MPH are possible, particularly north of
Highway 30. As the main upper level low stalls over Minnesota
and Iowa, another shortwave trough passes over the area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This upper-level
disturbance brings with it a 15-20% chance of rain showers
tomorrow evening into early Thursday morning, though widespread
precipitation is not expected. Furthermore, cloudy skies are
expected to build back into the area tomorrow night through
Thursday afternoon, limiting highs on Thursday in the 50s.

Friday and Beyond...

After Thursday, the rest of the forecast period is expected to
be mostly dry as an upper-level ridge starts to build over the
plains, though there is a nonzero (less than 10%) chance of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures are
expected to be near-normal, with highs increasing to the low
60s Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Overall a high-uncertainty forecast for ceilings tonight into
Wednesday, but MVFR conditions are expected to be the prevailing
group through roughly 15z Wednesday morning for both airports.
Have also opted to put a couple of SCT009 decks from 06z - 15z
tomorrow morning given latest model data, but confidence is
moderate that we will not slip back to fully IFR conditions.
KEAR looks to sit right on the sharpest edge of stratus deck
through tonight, with instances of VFR possible in spotty
fashion. VFR, however, is not expected to prevail until mid
Wednesday morning. Despite low confidence for ceilings,
confidence is high that visibilities will not be a concern.

Gusts through this evening can still reach 25+ kts at both
airports. After 02z, northwesterly winds are expected to relax
somewhat down to 10 kts sustained with gusts of 15+ kts. These
winds will then likely stick around through the end of the TAF
period. No LLWS is expected tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...Began