794
FXUS63 KGID 150511
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1211 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot on Tuesday with heat index values as high as of 100-102
  degrees in southern parts of the area.

- A line of thunderstorms is expected to move northwest to
  southeast across the area Tuesday night. This could produce
  damaging wind and isolated damaging hail, mainly in the 8pm to
  2am timeframe.

- Thunderstorms redevelop Wednesday evening, and a few of these
  could become strong to severe as well, particularly over
  northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

- Cooler and mostly dry on Thursday, then warming up with off/on
  thunderstorm chances Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Skies remain mostly clear across the area with only some spotty
afternoon cumulus beginning to develop as of 2pm. Temperatures
are on-track to top out in the 90s across the entire area this
afternoon. Any convection that develops over CO/WY should remain
well to our northwest through tonight.

On Tuesday, southerly flow increases as a shortwave approaches
the area. This should allow for another day of temperatures in
the 90s and even low 100s in southwestern parts of the area.
Increasing low-level moisture will also likely result in heat
index values in the 100-102 range for portions of northern
Kansas and far southern Nebraska.

By late Tuesday afternoon, scattered convection should develop
over the Nebraska panhandle near and ahead of a cold front. Nearly
all CAMs develop this into one or more southeasterly-moving
lines. This would then reach northwestern portions of the
forecast area (Lexington to Ord) by around 8-9pm. Most of the
HREF members (except WRF-ARW) favor this convection remaining
severe through most of, if not all of the forecast area. As
such, SPC has expanded the Slight Risk to cover more of the
forecast area. Given the convective mode, wind would be the
primary threat, although some severe hail cannot be ruled out in
the strongest cores as well. Locally heavy rain could be an
issue for areas with saturated soils, but storms should have
enough forward speed to avoid a significant flooding concern.

For Wednesday, the passage of the cold front will lead to cooler
temperatures for most. The exception will be southeastern
portions of the area where temperatures again reach the 90s as
the cold front stalls over northern Kansas. Exact details remain
somewhat uncertain, and are dependent on how Tuesday night plays
out, but scattered storms (some strong to severe) are expected
to redevelop Wednesday evening. The highest risk area is near
the stalled front in KS and far southern Nebraska, but there is
some risk for these to lift a bit further northward as well.
Slower storm motions along the stalled boundary could lead to
localized heavy rainfall as well.

Thursday will be cooler in the post-frontal airmass. In fact, it
could end up being one of the coolest days of the month with
high temperatures only in the mid 70s to low 80s. Global
ensembles and the NBM linger some low (10-30%) PoPs over
southern portions of the area, but most of the area will remain
dry.

Upper level ridging returns on Friday into the weekend, pushing
temperatures back into the 80s and 90s. A series of weak
disturbances traversing the ridge will bring off and on
thunderstorm chances to the area (mainly during the overnight
hours).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are expected for the majority of
this TAF period, with increasing potential for impactful weather
in the final few hours. During the daytime hours today, any
cloud cover is expected to remain in the mid-upper
levels...southerly winds are gusty late morning through the
afternoon hours, sustained speeds around 15-20 MPH and gusts
around 25-30 MPH. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to be
making its way SE through the area during the evening-overnight
hours...have a PROB30 group from 03-06Z, lowered visibility and
more variable gusty winds are expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP