932
FXUS63 KGID 171956
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
256 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Though thunderstorms are likely to remain mostly NW of the
  area tonight, a few of these storms may poke their way into
  western and northern portions of the area, mainly along and NW
  of a line from Cambridge to St Paul (20-30% chance). Most of
  the area will likely not see any precipitation tonight.

- Additional thunderstorm chances continues through the weekend,
  starting Friday night as a cold front passes across the area
  (20-40% chance).

- High temperatures will peak in the 80s-90s Friday, returning
  back to the 60s-70s Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Synoptic Overview...
Model guidance has been fairly consistent in the main upper-
level synoptic pattern, featuring a high over the Southeastern
US and a trough progressing from the West Coast. This southwesterly
flow aloft will allow multiple shortwaves/vorticity pockets to
advect into the area, bringing multiple thunderstorm chances to
the area the next few days.

Today...

A few scattered showers have developed in portions of the area,
in response to a vorticity maximum drifting through the area.
These showers are not expected to become widespread. Forecast
highs are expected to increase into the upper 70s-80s for south
central Nebraska and into the low 90s in north central Kansas
where the cloud cover is less dense.

Later this evening/tonight, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in response to the first shortwave trough moving over
the area. These thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly to
the NW of the forecast area, though a few of these storms may
poke their way into western and northern portions of the area,
mainly along and NW of a line from Cambridge to St Paul.

Tomorrow...

Above normal temperatures are expected across the area
tomorrow, supported by EFI-SOT values of 0.6-0.7 (which is a
measure of how extreme model guidance is compared to
climatology). Forecast highs are in the 80s to 90s, compared to
climatologically residing in the upper 70s to low 80s. However,
if the low-level clouds from the thunderstorms stick around
longer, realized temperatures may be lower than forecast. Friday
afternoon is expected to be dry.

The next best chance of precipitation (20-40%) comes Friday
night into Saturday morning, as models depict a surface cold
front progresses through the area. This frontal boundary will
serve as the main focal point for thunderstorm development.
However, there is some uncertainty with how far this cold front
will move into the area and the extent to which it will force
convection. Should these thunderstorms develop, CAPE values
around 1000-1500 J/kg and shear values around 30kt may support
isolated strong to severe storms.

Weekend and Beyond ...

Additional precipitation chances exist throughout the
weekend as additional upper-level disturbances move over the
area. These precipitation chances look to conclude Sunday night
into Monday morning, as the main upper- level trough finally
moves over the area. Temperatures will take a noticably decline
this weekend, with forecast highs in the 70s-80s Saturday and
60s-70s into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The current region of IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to thin
out throughout the afternoon to VFR, though some scattered low-
level clouds are possible. There is some uncertainty in the
timing of this thin out at KEAR, highlighted by the scattered
MVFR cloud layer. More than likely, skies will be VFR for both
terminals after the first couple hours of the forecast.Winds
will be easterly through the afternoon hours around 10-12kt,
though a few spurious gusts up to 20kt can`t be completely ruled
out, particularly at KEAR (confidence in gust occurrence was
not high enough to include in the TAF). Though not included in
the TAF due to a low probability of occurrence (10-20%), a few
isolated showers may be possible near the beginning of the
forecast (through approximately 20Z), particularly for KEAR.

Tonight, LLWS is possible between 3-15Z, as the low-level jet
strengthens. As thunderstorms pass to the NW of the terminals,
low ceilings are possible. However, there is some uncertainty
with where these clouds develop, as models currently range from
MVFR-LIFR height. Due to this uncertainty, kept ceilings right
around that MVFR/IFR threshold, though future forecasts may
lower these ceilings more. There is also some uncertainty with
the timing/expanse of this cloud cover. Hence, held on to the
lower ceilings but adjusted to a scattered group after 6Z.
Surface winds will veer this evening into tomorrow morning, with
speeds generally around 10-12kt.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...Scott