540
FXUS63 KGID 141118
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
618 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are forecast to continue today on through the
  daytime hours on Tuesday. Highs today are forecast to be a bit
  warmer, with low-mid 90s. Tuesday brings 90s as well, but SW
  portions of the area look to top out either side of 100
  degrees.

- Tuesday evening-overnight and again Wednesday evening-
  overnight bring the next best chances for thunderstorms to the
  forecast area. Both nights, storms will have the potential to
  be strong to severe.

- Periodic, low-confidence precipitation chances continue on in
  the forecast for Thursday through the weekend. Cooler
  temperatures expected on Thursday in the mid-70s to mid-80s,
  warming back up the mid-80s to mid-90s by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Currently on through tonight...

Been another very quiet night across the area. The Central
Plains are sitting under north-northwesterly flow in the upper
levels...set up between troughing extending southward from low
pressure spinning over the Hudson Bay area and broad high
pressure over the southwestern CONUS. Satellite imagery showing
a batch of mid-upper level clouds over eastern portions of the
forecast area...others are sitting under mostly clear skies. The
surface pattern remains a weaker one early this morning, with
the forecast area still under the influence of high pressure
centered off to our east, with troughing over the Rockies. This
is keeping winds generally southerly...but light, with speeds
around 5-10 MPH.

Overall, no notable changes made to the forecast through
tonight...which remains dry. Models remain in good agreement
showing the upper level pattern transitioning from NNWrly
early this morning to more zonal in nature through
today...Hudson Bay troughing continues sliding east, while the
SWrn CONUS ridging is further broken down/spreads east across
the southern CONUS as another storm system sinks south out of
western Canada into the Pac NW. At the surface, winds will
remain southerly today, with the pressure gradient tightening a
bit across the region as low pressure/troughing deepens over the
High Plains. Models show thunderstorm activity developing along
this boundary this afternoon, but are in good agreement showing
it not pushing far enough east to impact the forecast area.
Speeds look to top out around 10-15 MPH, but some gusts closer
to 20 MPH are not out of the question this afternoon, especially
across western areas. Expecting another bump up in temperatures
today as warmer air continues to build in from the
west...forecast highs are in the low-mid 90s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Upper level zonal flow expected to remain in place through mid-
week, with thunderstorm chances making a return to the
forecast. The daytime hours on Tuesday have continued to trend
drier over the past few days...and the current forecast is
precip-free in the 12Z-00Z time frame. During the day, the
surface pressure gradient tightens further, as low pressure
deepens over eastern CO ahead of an approaching shortwave
disturbances...with a frontal boundary extending northeastward
through western NE and central/eastern SD. Expecting speeds to
pick up a bit, with sustained speeds of 15-20 MPH and gusts of
25-30 MPH. Dewpoints climb back well into the 60s- near 70 in
this warm sector...with afternoon highs in the 90s once again,
and SWrn areas may reach either side of 100 degrees.

During the afternoon hours...models have remained in pretty good
agreement showing this first upper level disturbance sliding
through the High Plains...with thunderstorms developing along
that sfc frontal boundary near the west/central NE/SD border.
Expected to evolve into a mature MCS, models show this complex
shifting southeast through the evening/overnight
hours...following an axis of higher instability (exceeding
2000-3000 j/kg not out of the question) and aided by increased
convergence along the nose of a 40- ish kt low-level jet. Just
how far south activity spreads is a little uncertain...as models
show warmer mid-level temps/capping nosing in from the SSW,
really dropping of coverage roughly along/south of the 12-14C
line at 700mb. Highest storm chances (50- 70 percent) remain
along/north of a Lexington-Geneva line...but some models creep
more widespread activity closer to the state line. Not
surprisingly, much of the forecast area is included in the SPC
Day 2 Marginal Risk area, with the Slight Risk area over areas
mainly along/north of HWY 92. Damaging wind gusts and very heavy
rainfall rates look to be the primary hazards.

A lot of how the forecast for Wednesday ends up will be
dependent on how things Tuesday evening-overnight play out.
The forecast continues to have at least low end chances of
precip lingering around through the day...but it likely ends up
being whatever activity lingers into the early morning hours,
then fairly quiet during the rest of the daytime hours. Another
upper level shortwave disturbance is quick on the heels of
Tuesday`s system...looking to move out onto the Plains late in
the day Wednesday into the evening/overnight hours. Thunderstorm
activity expected to initially, primarily develop over the High
Plains during the late day-evening hours...but not out of the
question storms could fire further east, along a warm
front/reinforced boundary by the previous night`s
outflow...which could be running through the heart of the
forecast area. Storm chances increase as the High Plains complex
shifts east, as well as along the LLJ, increasing/nosing into
the forecast area. Precipitation chances in the 40-60 percent
range are widespread across the area...but exactly where any
surface boundaries end up during the day could impact temps
(which currently range from the mid-70s north to mid-90s south),
dewpoints and instability...so there are plenty of finer
details to iron out over the next couple days. There will again
be the potential for some of these storms to be strong-
severe...and the entire forecast area is included in the SPC Day
3 Marginal Risk area.

Thursday on through the weekend...

Looking at things for Thursday on through next weekend...overall
confidence in details is on the low side. Models remain in
decent agreement in the bigger picture...keeping upper level
flow across the region zonal, between broad high pressure over
the southern CONUS and seemingly non-stop train of shortwave
disturbances across the north. There continues to the potential
for at least some of these disturbances to impact the forecast
area...and the forecast has periodic, mainly 20-30 percent
chances through this time frame.

As far as temperatures go, once that second disturbance pushes
through Wednesday night...cooler temperatures are forecast for
Thursday, topping out in the mid-70s to mid-80s. Temperatures
return back closer to the normal in the mid-80s to mid-90s for
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF
period...with any clouds sliding in expected to remain in the
upper levels. Light/variable winds early this morning will turn
more south-southwesterly with time, and while speeds look to top
out around 10-15 MPH, occasional gusts closer to 20 MPH will be
possible through the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP