422
FXUS63 KGID 141120
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hefty low-level jet driving a line of storms from northeastern
  KS into far northeast portions of our forecast area...this
  activity will continue to slide further northeast over the
  next hour or two.

- Increasingly southerly winds expected today, with gusts around
  25-30 MPH expected...along with more widespread warmer
  temperatures. Highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s expected north
  to south...southern areas likely will have a least a period of
  heat index values near 100 degrees this afternoon.

- Later this afternoon-evening...an approaching cold front will
  drive increasing chances for thunderstorms...some of which may
  be strong to severe. SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area includes
  much of the forecast area...with the Slight Risk area
  including areas of Neb. east of HWY 281.

- Expecting a notably cooler day Tuesday in the 60s-70s, with
  more 70s-near 80 for Wednesday. Highs generally in the 70s-80s
  continue on through the rest of the week.

- An active upper level pattern will keep periodic chances for
  thunderstorms in the forecast through this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Currently...

Early this morning...upper air and satellite data showing more
southwesterly flow has worked its way onto the Central Plains.
This flow is set up between high pressure sitting over the
eastern Srn Plains with ridging extending north roughly along
the MO River, and low pressure spinning working east further
into the Nrn Rockies. Radar and satellite imagery showing a
swath of more agitated clouds and thunderstorm activity ramping
up over the last hour or so from NErn KS into eastern NE, driven
by warm air advection along a hefty low-level jet (SPC meso
page showing around 45-50kts). Hi-res models in pretty good
agreement showing that while over the next couple of hours our
ENErn portions of the forecast area could be clipped by some of
this activity...the main focus should continue to shift off to
our east. Can`t rule out some additional isolated activity
moving in from the WSW through the rest of tonight, not likely
to amount to a whole lot. At the surface, we`re currently set up
with east- southeasterly winds across the forecast
area...between high pressure dominating much of the
Midwest/western Great Lakes region and a frontal boundary
extending across OK into western KS toward an area of low
pressure over the WY/MT border area.

Today into tonight...

Overall there hasn`t been any notable changes in models looking
at this through tonight...still have the potential for
additional thunderstorms to develop, and some could be strong-
severe. Looking aloft, models are in good agreement showing that
low pressure system continuing to work its way east along the
MT/Canada border, getting into the ND/Can border later this
afternoon/evening. In response, surface low pressure/troughing
strengthens along the High Plains...pulling the surface boundary
currently off to our SSW northward as a warm front through the
first half of the day...ushering in a much warmer and gusty day
for today. As that upper low moves into the ND area, it`ll be
pushing the next surface cold front back south toward the
forecast area...looking to mainly work its way through later
this afternoon-evening.

Ahead of that next cold front...southerly winds will be ramping
up area-wide, gusts around 25-30 MPH are expected. Those gusts
will linger longer into the afternoon/turning more SWrly across
SErn portions of the area...with speeds tapering off further
west as that front works its way in. Following quite a range in
temperatures on Sunday with low 60s north to mid 80s
south...highs today are more solidly int he mid 80s-low 90s
across south central NE, with mid- upper 90s across north
central KS. Heat index values near 100 are also possible for at
least a brief time mid-late afternoon across SSErn portions of
the area.

While chances for scattered weaker activity will be picking up
earlier in the afternoon (some models even more in the late
morning-midday time frame)...the better chances for more
organized storms and potential for strong/severe storms along
that boundary will come later in the afternoon-evening hours
(mainly around/after 4PM). With models showing MUCAPE values
potentially exceeding 2000 j/kg and deeper layer shear generally
around 30-40kts...not a surprise that most of the forecast area
is included the SPC Day 1 outlook...most areas in the Marginal
Risk area, with portions of south central NE mainly east of HWY
281 included in the Slight Risk area (which continues on through
eastern NE into IA). Large hail/damaging winds remain the main
threats...an isolated tornado is not totally out of the
question, though that better potential may be focused just off
to our east.

Later in the evening on through the overnight hours
tonight...the surface cold front is still working its way
south through the forecast area...most models showing it just
getting to our far SSE fringes by around 12Z Tuesday. The better
upper level forcing will be continuing to push off to the east
into the Great Lakes area with time...but will still have some
convergence present along an increased LLJ, keeping storm
chances around through the overnight hours...gradually focusing
more south with time.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The upper level pattern across the area through mid-week looks
to remain generally west-southwesterly. The main system
driving today/tonight`s storm chances will have moved off well
east/weakened....with models showing another system working
south along the West Coast, while dampened high pressure is set
up over the SErn CONUS. Periodic upper level disturbances will
bring additional chances for storms to the forecast
area...mainly during the later day-evening/overnight periods.
How they ultimately pan out will also be dependent on the
placement of the main surface frontal boundary...while models
are in decent agreement generally-speaking, confidence in the
exact details is lower the further out in time you go.

For the daytime hours Tuesday...the main frontal boundary looks
to be south of the forecast area, bringing a notably cooler
day. Expecting northeasterly winds diminishing in speed through
the day...with forecast highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s.
This frontal placement would also keep the better precip
potential (including strong-severe storms) along and south of
the NE/KS state line. SPC Day 2 outlook currently keeps the
Marginal Risk area mainly along/south of I-70.

During the overnight hours Tuesday night into the day on
Wednesday, models show the surface frontal boundary lifting
back north across the area. This will spread increasing
preciptiation chances back further north across the forecast
area...but there are differences between models with just how
widespread this activity ultimately is...thus forecast
precipitation chances are pretty broad in nature. The northward
lifting front ushers southerly winds back in (though not as
strong as today`s winds)...and highs climbing further into the
70s-near 80.

Thursday on...

Hard to have a ton of confidence in the finer details the
further out in the forecast period you go...but models showing
the potential for an active pattern continuing through the end
of the week-upcoming weekend. That next upper level low over the
West Coast keeps flow across the Central Plains more
southwesterly in nature...with periodic shortwave disturbances
driving additional storm chances. High temperatures through the
latter portion of this forecast period look to mainly fluctuate
between the 70s and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Clouds have resulted in a very cool day for most of Nebraska,
although mostly clear skies have allowed portions of northern
Kansas to reach the 80s this afternoon. Tonight, another round
of warm-air-advection showers/storms is expected. That said,
CAMs generally show the highest coverage remaining to our east.
At any rate, the threat for severe weather is low through
tonight.

A few showers or weak thunderstorms remain possible during the
morning and early afternoon on Monday. This does provide a
little uncertainty on how warm we will actually get, but there
should be enough clearing in the afternoon that most areas will
reach the upper 80s to 90s, aided by fairly strong southwest
winds (gusts 30-35 MPH). Southeastern areas could see heat index
values approach/exceed 100 degrees briefly Monday afternoon
before the front moves through.

This front will provide focus for storm development in the late
afternoon and evening. Coverage and intensity is still a little
uncertain, but at least a few strong to severe storms are
possible in the 5PM to midnight timeframe. Roughly the
southeastern half of the area is most favored for severe
weather.

Storm intensity will wane Monday night, but at least a few
showers and storms will persist into Tuesday. The post-frontal
airmass will be noticably cooler on Tuesday (highs in the upper
60s and low 70s, depending on cloud cover). Thunderstorms become
likely again Tuesday night, especially in southeastern parts of
the area, as southwesterly flow aloft interacts with the stalled
midlevel boundary across KS and southeastern Neb.

This pattern then repeats itself through the rest of the
workweek. Overall, temperatures remain on the cooler side,
although temperatures could approach climatological normals
(upper 70s to low 80s) on Friday. Daily chances for rain and
thunderstorms continue, although the overall severe threat is
fairly low. Global ensembles favor the southeastern half of the
area with highest chance (>50%) for over 1.00" of rain through
the week. Localized amounts of 2-3" are possible, although it is
possible that the heaviest rain totals are realized to our east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Satellite imagery showing low-level stratus lingering around the
northern half of the forecast area early this morning...models
showing potential for sub-VFR conditions continuing for the
first couple of hours of this TAF period. Once those lower
ceilings diminish/shift north...have VFR conditions in the
forecast, though confidence in that isn`t overly high,
especially in the latter half of the period. From roughly mid-
morning on through the late evening hours, there will be the
potential for periodic showers/storms passing through the
region...because of uncertainties with timing/track, kept
mention confined to PROB30 groups. Outside of precip
chances/early low stratus, another concern lies with winds.
Gusty southerly winds expected during much of the daytime hours
today...gusts around 25-30 MPH will be possible. Later this
afternoon, speed diminish some from west to east as a cold front
approaches the area...which models show pushing into the
terminal areas mid-late evening, bringing a switch to northerly
winds for the end of this period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP