388
FXUS63 KGID 060555
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1155 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is increasing concern for a brief period of light
  freezing rain Saturday morning (7am to noon). The primary
  threat area is near/northwest of a line from Cambridge to
  Kearney to Greeley. A light glaze of ice could lead to slick
  patches on roads.

- A light dusting of snow is possible in areas north of Highway
  92 Saturday morning through early afternoon. Areas further
  south may just see a brief shot of light rain.

- Colder on Sunday, but temperatures rebound quickly
  Monday/Tuesday.

- Mostly dry through next week, with only low (10-20%) chances
  for light snow for the middle to end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

As depicted by the HRRR earlier today, radar is now showing
rain/snow showers developing over SD and moving into northern
Nebraska. These are diurnally aided and should dissipate after
sunset. A few of these could clip northeastern parts of the
area, but nothing measurable/impactful is expected at this time.

The main concern going forward is a brief wintry mix of light
freezing rain, rain, and snow on Saturday as a fast moving
shortwave moves through the area. The short duration of the
event will limit impacts, but there is potential for a brief
period of freezing rain 7am to noon on Saturday. HREF/HRRR/RAP
all show light precipitation move in from the west shortly after
sunrise on Saturday. At this time, surface temperatures will be
subfreezing, with warmer temperatures aloft...favoring freezing
rain (possibly mixed with ice pellets). Realistically, this
will only last for 1-2 hours at any given location, but could
result in some slick patches on roads before temperatures rise
above freezing. The aforementioned models favor areas west of
Highway 183 for the best chance for a glaze of ice, with a
slightly lower threat further to the north and east.

Snow accumulation is expected to be minimal and largely non-
impactful for central Nebraska. Even the highest members from
the HREF only show around 1 inch of snow along our northeasterly
fringes. And that is assuming a 10:1 ratio...which is probably
much too optimistic given the surface temperatures.

Precipitation is expected to end by sunset on Saturday, allowing
any wet surfaces to dry off before falling below freezing
Saturday night. Winds flip to the northwest behind a cold front
Saturday evening.

Sunday is favored to be coldest day of the week, with most
locations remaining below freezing. There are some hints for
post-frontal snow showers on Sunday, but the overall model
consensus remains dry for now.

Temperatures trend significantly warmer for Monday/Tuesday,
then moderate back closer to normal for the middle to end of
next week. Overall, precipitation chances remain limited,
although global ensembles show at least some chance for light
precip mainly in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected with lgt and variable winds rest of
tonight. Conditions will quickly change around dawn as mid level
clouds increase and winds pick up out of the SSE ahead of our
next quick- moving upper disturbance. This wave could bring a
short (~3-4 hour window) for light wintry mix to the terminals,
generally in the 15-18Z time frame. Continuing to cover this
with a PROB30 as any activity that actually reaches the ground
should be light and may not be continuous. Models also hint at
some marginal low level wind shear conditions, but since the
timing comes after sunrise and sfc winds will be increasing,
have not included at this time. Clouds will quickly clear out
around midday as winds veer to the SW then W. Winds could be
pretty gusty for 2-3 hours in the early-mid afternoon. A strong
cold front will turn winds to the NW/N late Sat eve and usher in
at least MVFR stratus. IFR could sneak into mainly GRI for a few
hours Sat night. Confidence: Medium to high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies