661
FXUS63 KGID 302335
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Steady light to moderate rainfall early this afternoon will
  become heavy at times this afternoon/evening (3-11PM). Tornado
  threat (4-11PM) mainly KS zones.

- Flash Flood Watch remains in effect (primarily south of Hwy
  30) for potential of 2-4", localized 4-7", of total rainfall.

- Most of the rain will have ended by 3 AM tonight. Flood Watch
  for Nebraska may need to be ended early. Additional rainfall
  on Thursday appears to be more focused on Kansas and will not
  be as heavy as today.

- Much drier, and seasonably cool conditions (Highs 60-75F /
  Lows 45-55), settle in for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Tornado/Wind Threat This Evening...

A northward lifting warm front could make it as far north as
Osborne/Mankato/Hebron by this evening. There will be at least a
limited tornado threat along and south of this warm front given
strong low level wind shear (0-1km SRH 250-350 m2/s2) and
marginal instability (500-1500 J/KG). Limiting severe weather
factors will be extensive cloud cover limiting overall
instability and widespread precipitation shield lacking the
more severe conducive discrete convection. A few breaks in the
clouds across southern Kansas will likely expand into central
Kansas, but it is unlikely that we will see any breaks in the
clouds across north central Kansas, which will limit instability
and severe potential. Am not really concerned about hail in
this more tropical set up. Our primary tornado threat will be
near and south of that warm front (Osborne to Hebron) between
4-11PM. Given the tropical environment our boundary layer will
likely remain unstable for several hours after sunset allowing
for tornado threat to persist after dark. Thunderstorms will
likely not display very impressive reflectivity signatures, but
given the strong shear and low cloud bases we will have to keep
a close eye on possible velocity rotation signatures.


Heavy Rain/Flooding Threat...

We have been hitting on this heavy rain/flooding threat for
several days. The heaviest/majority of the rain will fall over
the next 6 to 12 hours (3-11pm). The rain will first increase
in intensity across Kansas and then lift north into southern
Nebraska as we head through the evening. The heaviest rain is
most likely south of an Osceola, Doniphan, Holdrege line.
Along and south of that line we expect widespread 1-3" rainfall
amounts. However, the bigger concern is the potential for
training thunderstorms resulting in localized very heavy
rainfall amounts as high as 4-7". These heaviest amounts will
be very limited in area, but of significant impact. Many
forecast models hint at training storms with localized high end
amounts over 5". Given the recent heavy rain over the past week
and saturated soil conditions across much of the area, areas
that do realize these highest amounts (4-7") could see
considerable flash flooding. Anyone along or south of the above
mentioned line should at least be prepared for the possibility
of these localized higher end amounts.

The rain will gradually diminish and end in many areas after
midnight. We could see some rain redevelop across mainly Kansas
during the day on Thursday, but of less intensity that today.
Technically the Flood Watch will continue into Thursday, but
may end early across Nebraska zones if current forecast trends
continue. There could be ongoing flooding from tonight that
persists in some areas for several days. Additional rainfall
amounts on Thursday will be heaviest across Kansas (0.25-1.00")
and lightest across Nebraska (generally 0-0.25").


Friday through Wednesday...

Not going to spend much time on this period as the weather
generally becomes quiet with mainly dry and seasonably cool
conditions. There is good confidence that most days through
Monday will see highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. We do expect slightly warmer conditions Tuesday
through the end of next week (upper 60s - mid 70s) but with
higher uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Heavy rain will be expected to fall across much of the next 3-6
hours with scattered showers appearing off and on across much
of the rest of the period (mainly during the 6-12z window).
Showers across the day Thursday will be expected to be fairly
isolated and short-lived.

Ceilings overnight are expected to primarily hang around
LIFR/IFR classifications (around 500-1,000ft). Between 9-16z,
cloud bases should gradually rise, later becoming VFR again
after 16z.

Though fog is not anticipated to form tonight, visibilities from
heavy rain across the next few hours should intermittently drop
as low as 2-5 miles. Winds will keep a north to northeasterly
orientation across the period with gusty winds (between
20-30kts) possible to prevail after 9z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ048-049-060>064-
     072>077-082>087.
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Stump