704
FXUS63 KGID 031732
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...18z Aviation Discussion Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more seasonably cool day before a warming trend develops
  for the start of the new work week.

- Hot and humid conditions, including peak heat indices 100-105
  degrees, return for mid to late week.

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue this morning for
  areas mainly along/east of Highway 281.

- Periodic 20-30% rain chances continue through Tuesday night,
  but the majority of the work week is trending dry. The next
  decent chance for organized rain could come next weekend with
  our next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

It`s deja vu this morning as once again we`ve seen convection
arrive from the west off the High Plains, accompanied by a
remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Latest short-term
CAMs are in decent agreement that iso-scat showers and weak
storms will continue to bubble up through dawn, perhaps mid to
late AM, along and ahead of the slowly eastward drifting MCV.
Best rain chances this morning look to remain along/E of Hwy
281 as increasing subsidence keeps chances minimal for our
western half. Clouds could be stubborn to clear out for eastern
areas and keep them cooler in the mid 70s. Western zones should
see more sunshine and warm up to around 80. Either way, another
seasonably cool and not-so-humid day to round out the weekend.

Wash, rinse, repeat pattern continues into tonight with yet
another chance for showers and thunderstorms to move in from the
W/NW after sunset. Latest CAMs, however, have actually backed
off on these chances, keeping convection mainly over the
Sandhills through the evening, then quickly dissipating the
activity by 03-06Z. Parts of the area are included in a
"Marginal Risk" (level 1 of 5) in the SPC Day 1 Outlook, but the
recent model trends cast some uncertainty. Perhaps the decaying
convection can push out some marginally severe outflow (50-60
MPH wind gusts) for areas from around Lexington to Ord.
FWIW...of the past several days...this is the least aggressive
the CAMs have been with spreading convection E/SE during the
overnight hours. As such, have limited chances to only 20-30%
for this forecast.

General pattern will begin to undergo some transition early in
the new work week as upper ridging builds over the Desert SW.
In fact, latest EC and GFS actually place some of the highest
height rises on Monday over the central Plains. As mentioned in
yesterday AM discussion, this casts considerable doubt in
forcing being strong enough to support convection Mon PM,
despite the higher instability and seasonably modest shear.
Tail end of CAM runs reflect the increasing hostile environment
from the strengthening ridging and depict only iso development
that is well W/NW of the area. Thus, not too surprised to see
Monday`s Marginal Risk shifted away from the area in recent
updates. It`ll be noticeably warmer (and more humid) and likely
one of the last "decently pleasant" late summer days for the week.

Heat cranks up for the second half of the work week as upper
ridging expands across much of the southern US and forces the
primary westerlies well N of the area toward the US/Canadian
border. Will have to watch for potential "ridge runner" type
rain chances each night, but increasing 700mb temps to 14-17C
will be extremely tough for convection to move into, and
suggests the main area of potential will be from the Dakotas
into the Upper MS Valley. Hot and humid conditions look to peak
across our area in the Thu-Fri time frame with widespread highs
in the 90s and dew points (not surprisingly) returning to the
70s thanks to efficient evapotranspiration ("corn sweat"). This
yields peak heat indices in the 98-105F each afternoon. The
"shoulder days" Wed and Sat appear slightly cooler - but still
warm - in the mid to upper 90s for heat indices. Longer range
ensembles continue to suggest a cooldown back into the 80s that
arrives about a week from today. This will also probably be our
next decent chance for organized rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Sneaky low level clouds early this afternoon brought ceilings
into MVFR conditions. Bases are expected to raise some this
afternoon before lowering back to MVFR (60-70% confidence) and
later IFR (40-50% confidence) bases between 10z and 18z Monday.
The worst conditions should fall more west towards KEAR.
Reductions in visibility may also be possible during this time
with potentially low-level stratus becoming more so fog.

There is a brief chance for thunderstorms in the vicinity
between 2-6z with lingering showers possible for portions of the
morning. (30-40% confidence). Winds staring out of the south
between 10-15kts and gusting up to 20-25kts should lighten and
potentially calm some overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Stump