285
FXUS63 KGID 032335
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A pair of cold fronts - one today and another one Thursday
  afternoon/evening - will bring a low end chance for an
  isolated thunderstorm. The more sensible impact will be smoke
  from wildfires ushered in behind these fronts.

- Additional scattered post-frontal showers/weak storms possible
  over a larger area Thursday night, but rain amounts will
  remain light.

- Confidence is fairly high in prevailing dry weather at least
  Friday afternoon-Sunday, with low/uncertain chances for
  showers/storms returning early next week.

- Temperatures will be a bit of a roller coaster next few days,
  going from warm mid 70s to mid 80s on Thursday, to much cooler
  60s and lows in the 40s Friday and Friday night. Temperatures
  gradually moderate this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 423 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

It`s a tale of two halves of the CWA this afternoon - a much
cooler, cloudier, dare I say even a bit "chilly" northern
half...vs a sunnier, much warmer, and same may even say "hot"
southern half (or third). Northern zones have even seen some
falling temperatures this afternoon within abundant stratocu and
breezy N winds. In fact, Ord is struggling to maintain 60s, and
even areas along I-80 have fallen into the upper 60s. However,
far southern zones have remained in sunshine ahead of the cold
front the longest, and have thus warmed significantly more into
the low to mid 80s. 90s aren`t that far away along the I-70
corridor...so nearly a 25-30 degree spread in temps from N to S.
Getting to be that time of year when temperature gradients can
be large, even in the absence of precipitation.

The cold front will continue to make southward progress this
evening. Still appears to be a slight chance, at best, for any
storms to develop along the cold front prior to exiting the CWA
around 6-7PM. A few of our southern counties remain in a
Marginal Risk on latest SPC Day 1 outlook for this potential,
for all intents and purposes, the greater risk is by far
centered just S/SE - roughly along/S the I-70 corridor, and
along/E of Hwy 283. The greater, more sensible, impact will
likely be the smoke that is ushered in behind the front. Can see
a fair amount streaming southward on latest "True Color"
satellite loops, and also seeing a number of 4-6SM visibility
observations upstream over northern NE into SD. An Air Quality
Alert has been issued for areas E of Hwy 281 in south central
Nebraska, where concentrations should be highest and most
persistent. Whatever smoke gets into the area this evening will
go nowhere tonight beneath a low level inversion and only light
and variable winds. This regime could also support some patchy
fog - particularly from around the Tri-Cities N and W, but
coverage of high clouds casts some uncertainty.

Winds will turn S/SSW ahead of yet another cold front on
Thursday. This front looks to arrive later in the day, allowing
for more of the region to remain in pre-frontal/warm Srly flow
and partly to mostly sunny skies through peak heating. Forecast
continues to show warm highs ranging from mid to upper 80s far
W, to mid to upper 70s along Hwy 81. Any AM smoke should be
advected NE or mixed out by around midday. However, additional
smoke could move in from the W/NW behind the next system later
in the day - particularly for areas W of the Tri-Cities. Models
suggest this plume of smoke should be shorter-lived for any
given location, which makes sense given expected breezy winds.
Still an outside chance we could get a few storms going along
the actual front Thursday PM, and if we do, there`s a decent
amount of instability for a strong storm. However, latest CAMs
suggest this potential is highly conditional and nothing may
develop at all given modest low level mass convergence, warm mid
level temps, and narrow moist axis. We are NOT outlooked in the
latest SPC Day 2 forecast.

Some model guidance shows some trailing energy possibly
interacting with lingering mid level frontogenesis to produce
bands of light showers and weak convection Thursday night -
mainly along and S of I-80. PoPs remain fairly low given only
very light QPF forecast of trace to maybe a tenth closer to
Highway 24 corridor in northern KS. Will be a bit chilly Thu
night into first half of Fri under continued cold air advection
and temps only in the 50s and 60s. Should be perfect early fall
weather for Friday night football games, though, as skies clear
out and winds weaken late afternoon and into the evening.

Forecast turns fairly "boring" Fri night through the weekend.
Saturday AM will be chilly with lows in the 40s (MAYBE a few
upper 30s in favored cold spots N/NE of the Tri-Cities)...but
the rest of the weekend should be more mild and pleasant - esp
Saturday afternoon given light winds, plentiful sunshine, low
humidity, and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Srly winds will
incr Sun and esp. early next week, but so will the temps back
into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Low end, and highly uncertain,
rain chances return in the Mon-Tue time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF
period, though smoke moving in from wildfires to our north could
impact visibilities this evening/tonight for both sites, and
potentially through much of the day for KGRI. At this point kept
visibility bottomed out at 6SM, but will be watching upstream
obs closely...not out of the question MVFR conditions could
develop. Winds this evening/overnight will become
light/variable, with WSWrly winds expected to developing during
the daytime hours on Thursday. During the afternoon hours, gusts
around 20-25 MPH will be possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...ADP