067
FXUS63 KGID 262058
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
358 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight, with a
  small chance for a strong to marginally severe storm
  (primarily for winds up to 60 mph) west of Highway 183.

- Cloudy, cooler and unsettled Thursday. Severe storms unlikely
  during the day, with a chance for strong to severe storms
  returning Thursday night. Large hail (1.25"+) and strong winds
  (60 mph+) will both be possible.

- Periodic, mainly nocturnal, chances for showers and
  thunderstorms are then expected Friday through Sunday, with
  beautiful temperatures (75-85) and mostly sunny skies during
  the daytime hours both Saturday and Sunday.

- Warmer temperatures to start next week (85-95+) with
  additional chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures in the 80s to lower
90s are being observed across the local area this afternoon. To
our west, an upper level disturbance across the Rockies is
beginning to fire up some convection, with a complex of storms
expected to reach the western fringes of the local area around
midnight tonight. Initially, there could be a strong storm or
two across our west where the instability will be best, but
severe storms should not be widespread or propagate very far
east, as instability drops off from west to east across the
local area. The main concern for western areas will be a strong
or marginally severe wind gust to near 60 mph.

With the upper level ridge to our west being weakened by this
first disturbance, a more zonal flow pattern with unsettled
weather is expected across the area beginning Thursday, with
showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through the daytime
hours (although mostly in the morning) with a subsequence upper
level wave coming out of the southwest reaching the area
Thursday evening. With cooling temps aloft Thursday evening,
instability will begin to build, and we could see some strong to
severe storms as this next disturbance passes by. Given the
elevated nature of the storms, large hail and strong wind gusts
look to be the main threats.

For Friday, temperatures will rebound back to near Climo,
although maybe not quite as warm as we currently have in the
forecast, as most numerical guidance is a bit cooler and the
upper level pattern and surface conditions don`t look to support
a 10 degree warming from Thursday. That said, there should be
more sun around, so would expect temperatures to warm into at
least the lower to mid 80s ahead of a cold front, which will
bring very nice temperatures to the area for the weekend. Could
see some marginally severe storms with the front Friday night
through the overnight hours, with the 18Z NAM showing a nice
band of precip across the area.

As mentioned, very nice conditions are expected over the
weekend, with below normal temperatures and partly to mostly
sunny skies during the daytime hours, and only small chances for
thunderstorms skirting parts of the area during the evening and
overnight periods. Temperatures will quickly rebound Monday
with a transitory upper level ridge, but this will be quick
passing...with seasonal temperatures and continued chances for
thunderstorms...across at least parts of the local area...each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly move ENE during
the period. The winds will become more southerly as the high
moves farther east. The gradient looks to tighten near the end
of the TAF period and will introduce gusts into the teens to low
20s. A mid-level disturbance will move out of the Rockies
tonight which will give the TAF sites chances for
-SHRA. Decided to keep EAR -SHRA for now due to morning timing
 of precipitation. GRI is a little later and figured it would
 have a little more instability to work with so put a mention
 for VCTS also. MVFR ceilings look possible behind the
 disturbance as some of the models are trying to bring a SCT-
 BKN015-020 ceiling into the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Beda