666
FXUS63 KGID 181122
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
622 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs today in the upper 80s-90s with southerly winds gusting
  20-30mph.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible (15-35%) during the evening (along/SE
  of Tri-Cities) to overnight hours (along/NW of Tri- Cities).

- Cooler on Saturday with highs in the 70s/80s, with seasonable-
  seasonably cool weather Sunday-Wednesday (60s/70s). Off and on
  Thunderstorm chances are possible this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Temperatures this morning are currently sitting in the upper
60s to 70s with a band of low stratus located across
northeastern portions of the area. Within this deck of stratus,
patchy fog is ongoing which may occasionally reduce visibility
down to around 3-4 miles. The fog and stratus will gradually
clear from south to north early this morning as a warm front
lifts north across the area. Breezy south- southwest winds are
expected today gusting 20-30mph. Aided by warm southerly flow,
temperatures climb into the upper 80s-90s with lows near 100
degrees possible across north-central Kansas. A cold front from
an approaching shortwave trough will move into the area during
the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorm development is
possible along the front during the evening hours. While there
is some uncertainty on the exact location of the front, models
favor it roughly along or just southeast of the Tri-Cities. CAPE
of 1500 J/Kg and 25-30kts of shear should limit the strength of
these storms, though can`t rule out a briefly stronger storm.
Another cluster of storms that develops over eastern CO is
expected to lift into western portions of the area during the
late evening-overnight hours. Given the timing and marginal
atmospheric parameters, severe weather is unlikely with these
storms. Scattered showers/storms are expected to continue across
central/northwestern portions of the area overnight.

The cold front is likely to stall out across far southeastern
portions of the area (Hebron-Beloit) or just southeast of the area
on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be cooler behind the front
topping out in the 70s and 80s. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the front during the afternoon-evening hours. If the
front does stall across far southeastern portions of the area, those
areas along and southeast of the front could see a brief window of
strong-marginally severe thunderstorms before storms move further
into central Kansas. Northwest of the front, scattered
showers/storms may linger off and on throughout the day, but most
areas are currently favored to be dry. Another cluster of
showers/storms looks to move out of CO during the late evening-
overnight hours, bringing another round of scattered showers/storms
to the area. Otherwise the forecast remains on track as troughing
aloft leads to a seasonably cool start to next week (highs 60s/70s).
Temperatures then gradually climb mid-late next week as ridging-
southwest flow builds back over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Synoptic Overview...
Model guidance has been fairly consistent in the main upper-
level synoptic pattern, featuring a high over the Southeastern
US and a trough progressing from the West Coast. This southwesterly
flow aloft will allow multiple shortwaves/vorticity pockets to
advect into the area, bringing multiple thunderstorm chances to
the area the next few days.

Today...

A few scattered showers have developed in portions of the area,
in response to a vorticity maximum drifting through the area.
These showers are not expected to become widespread. Forecast
highs are expected to increase into the upper 70s-80s for south
central Nebraska and into the low 90s in north central Kansas
where the cloud cover is less dense.

Later this evening/tonight, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in response to the first shortwave trough moving over
the area. These thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly to
the NW of the forecast area, though a few of these storms may
poke their way into western and northern portions of the area,
mainly along and NW of a line from Cambridge to St Paul.

Tomorrow...

Above normal temperatures are expected across the area
tomorrow, supported by EFI-SOT values of 0.6-0.7 (which is a
measure of how extreme model guidance is compared to
climatology). Forecast highs are in the 80s to 90s, compared to
climatologically residing in the upper 70s to low 80s. However,
if the low-level clouds from the thunderstorms stick around
longer, realized temperatures may be lower than forecast. Friday
afternoon is expected to be dry.

The next best chance of precipitation (20-40%) comes Friday
night into Saturday morning, as models depict a surface cold
front progresses through the area. This frontal boundary will
serve as the main focal point for thunderstorm development.
However, there is some uncertainty with how far this cold front
will move into the area and the extent to which it will force
convection. Should these thunderstorms develop, CAPE values
around 1000-1500 J/kg and shear values around 30kt may support
isolated strong to severe storms.

Weekend and Beyond ...

Additional precipitation chances exist throughout the
weekend as additional upper-level disturbances move over the
area. These precipitation chances look to conclude Sunday night
into Monday morning, as the main upper- level trough finally
moves over the area. Temperatures will take a noticably decline
this weekend, with forecast highs in the 70s-80s Saturday and
60s-70s into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions likely through midnight, sub-VFR CIGS possible
late in TAF period. LLWS will weaken by 14-15z as surface winds
increase. Southwest winds sustained 10-15kts and gusting
20-25kts are expected mid-morning through the early afternoon
hours. Winds weaken and become variable during the late
afternoon- evening hours as a cold front moves through the area.
Isolated- scattered storms are possible with this frontal
passage, but confidence in storms impacting is too low to
include in the TAF at this time. Additional storm chances are
possible after midnight, but again confidence is too low to
warrant a mention in the TAF at this time. Late in the TAF
period, MVFR or lower stratus moves into KGRI/KEAR from the
north. Opted to go with a slightly earlier arrival compared to
model guidance for this sub-VFR potential.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...Davis