421
FXUS63 KGID 072038
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
338 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Though forecast uncertainty remains fairly high, the potential
  for a few strong to severe storms Saturday morning (mainly
  between 7AM and 2PM for areas north of I-80 or east of
  HWY-281) remains in place.

- The strongest storms (if they materialize) would be capable of
  producing hail up to the size of quarters with thunderstorm
  wind gusts near 60MPH.

- A few isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out across the
  evening to nighttime hours Saturday. Even better storm
  chances come next week (daily thunderstorm chances Monday-
  Thursday).

- Temperatures will raise up to the 90s to 104 degrees Sunday
  with heat index values exceeding 100 degrees across a majority
  of the area. The warmest temperatures will be concentrated
  towards the south and east.

- Highs next week (after Sunday) will look to decrease a few
  degrees each day with highs potentially reaching the 70s again
  by Thursday (40-80% chance, greatest potential for south
  central Nebraska).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026


General Overview...

Broad ridging out west with troughing to the east leaves the area
underneath northwest flow today. Across the next few days, the upper-
level pattern will be expected to return back to a more zonal (less
amplified) flow with occasional shortwave disturbance possible to
pass through over the next week. Though a few scattered storms may
pop up here and there over the weekend into early next week, the
majority of the area should remain fairly dry with gradually
increasing rain/storm chances across the middle to end of next week.
As for temperatures, highs will gradually increase by a few degrees
each day through Sunday before trending the other direction for a
majority of next week.


Tonight and Saturday...

Though some areas of fog can`t be completely ruled out across a few
locations mainly south if I-80 tonight (20-50% chance), the coverage
and intensity of any frog that develops should not be as
widespread/intense as this past morning. The latest HREF guidance
has 50% of its ensemble members projecting fog with only 20% of its
members showing dense fog. In comparison of the HREF guidance 24-
hours earlier (guidance for this past morning), 60% of its members
had fog with 40% of them dense. As result to the decreased model
confidence, we suspect that any fog that does manage to develop
will not be as dense or widespread as from this past morning.

The even bigger question for Saturday morning will be the potential
for a few storms to materialize out of the Nebraska sandhills region.
Current high resolution forecast guidance has been in and out with the
overall coverage of these storms, leading to lower than normal
confidence for our PoPs (only up to 10-30%). The best chances for
thunderstorm activity will generally be concentrated north of I-80
and east of HWY-281 between 7AM and 2PM.

Despite the uncertainty for storm coverage, the conditions would
generally be supportive enough for severe weather for any given
location that does see a thunderstorm. As a result, the SPC keeps a
majority of the area (all of south central Nebraska and Philips,
Smith and Jewell counties in north central Kansas) included in a
Marginal severe weather outlook. Conditionally, some elevated CAPE
(up to 3,000-4,000J/kg above 800mb) paired with a nocturnal low-
level jet (25-40kts of bulk shear) should be supportive enough for
helping a few of these storms become potentially strong to severe.
Though hail up to the size of quarters may be possible within a few
of the taler (generally stronger) storms, the main concern would be
for gusty thunderstorm winds up to near 60MPH.

Beyond the chance for storms in the morning, a few isolated to
scattered pop up storms can`t be ruled out across the evening or
nighttime hours as well. Highs for Saturday are expected to
climb back to as high as the upper 80s and 90s for a majority of
the area, though a few far southeast Nebraska and north central
Kansas locations may reach the low 100s (20-50% chances). This
warm up will carry on through the weekend as southerly winds
help advect in a warmer and humid airmass.


Next Week...

Highs peaking Sunday (90-104 degrees; warmest towards the southwest)
will be followed a multi-day cool down following the passage of a
cold front Sunday night into Monday morning as well as the presence
of increasing cloud coverage. NBM probabilities even show a 60-80%
chance for highs to stay below 80 degrees Thursday for south central
Nebraska and a 40-60% chance across north central Kansas. Though a
heat advisory has not yet been considered for Sunday, heat indices
will be expected to rise above 100 degrees across a majority of the
area with a 30-70% of heat index values reaching/exceeding 105
degrees across portions of north central Kansas. If this trend
continues, a heat advisory may be considered.

Besides the temperatures, a slightly wetter signal is beginning to
appear next week as daily PoPs return across the entire area starting
Monday night (20-30% chance). It is too early to fully analyze the
nightly thunderstorm potential that will be mainly based around the
specific timing for passing disturbances. That being said, sufficient
moisture, a warm/buoyant airmass and the return of a nocturnal low-
level jet, would all check the boxes needed for severe convection.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to maintain through at least 6z
tonight. Between 6z and 18z, increasing cloud coverage will be
observed with a few storms approaching the vicinity from the
northwest between 12-18z. It is unclear at this point in time if
the storms will reach either KGRI or KEAR. The current model
guidance keeps the precipitation coverage north and east. If a
storms does pass, ceilings as low as 1,000-2,000ft will be
possible with visibilities dropping near 2-4SM.

Though not likely (20-40% chance), some fog may redevelop
overnight into Saturday morning for a few locations across south
central Nebraska. The potential for dense fog overall remains
low.

Winds today are likely at their gustiest point (currently
gusting as high as 20-30kts as of 17z). These gusts should
naturally decrease across the evening hours with speeds
returning to clam/light winds (<10kts between 3-12z). Wind
directions out of the south this afternoon will gradually pivot
to a northeasterly direction overnight. During the day
Saturday, directions will settle out of the southeast with
speeds cranking back up in the afternoon hours (gusts as high as
25-30kts).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump