258
FXUS63 KGID 051757
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1157 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The 7-day forecast (through Wednesday) remains dry (chance for
  precipitation <10%).

- Temperatures peaking in the upper 40s to low 60s Today and
  Friday will gradually increase back to the 60s to low 70s over
  the weekend and into Monday.

- Freezing to near-freezing temperatures (mid 20s to mid 30s)
  will be possible overnight Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026


Light 5-10MPH surface winds out of the north to northwest early this
morning have helped reinforce cool temperatures with
overnight/morning lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s. These
northerly winds will gradually become more northeasterly in the
afternoon as a Great Lakes centered low pressure center continues to
push east and away. This feature should lead to local pressure rises
across central Nebraska/Kansas today. As result, wind speeds/gusts
are not expect to exceed 15-20MPH during the day today.

Highs for today should mainly stay on par from yesterday as
temperatures spread up into the upper 40s to low 60s again this
afternoon. With overcast skies expected to retain across the eastern
half of Nebraska/Kansas today and with clear skies across the far
western portions of the state, we find that the local area should
fall somewhere inbetween. As result, the warmest temperatures this
afternoon (mid 50s to low 60s) should fall across the western half
of the area (location most likely to see less cloud coverage) with
the eastern half of the area seeing highs peak in the upper 40s to
mid 50s (locations expected to have the greatest cloud coverage).

Tonight, lows will be on track to spread the mid 20s (far northwest
locations) to the mid 30s (far southeast locations), or around 5-10
degrees cooler from this morning. Temperatures Friday will mark the
last day where highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s (at least
through the middle of next week) ahead of a mini warm up over the
weekend. This change in temperature trends will come as the surface
high pressure rises will peak Friday (~1024mb) along side a
southerly orientating southerly wind field (enlisting a warm air
advection pattern). Aloft, an eastward exiting trough will lead to
ridging in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere. This pattern
is most common for suppressing precipitation chances (<10% PoPs in
the 7-day forecast) and leading to temperature rises that can
translate down to the surface from subsidence (highs mainly in the
60s over the weekend). For more information on the long-range
forecast, please refer to the discussion below.

Though confidence is not high at this time, the potential for a
band of fog to develop west of HWY-281 (best potential west of
HWY-183) looks to be in play. Though not every model is
materializing this possible patch of fog, it is important to
mention that the RRFS and REFS models have both kept a
consistent signal over the last few runs. Given the calming
winds tonight (Thursday night) and with the temperatures
looking to near their saturation points (low to mid 30s
dewpoints), the development of fog appears plausible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

19z RAP objective analysis depicts the closed 552dam low
swirling over the Northern Plains. Several vorticity lobes are
observed with the feature and are helping force some weak
showery activity just north of the CWA. Current CAM guidance
suggests the bulk of this shower activity staying north of the
forecast area through at least 04z. The low level stratus
trapped underneath an approaching sfc high will slowly push off
to the east, so expect sunshine for most locations. Highs warm
to the low to mid 50s. Lingering tightness in the sfc pressure
gradient behind the departing low is resulting in gusty 30 to 35
mph northwest winds. These should subside over the next few
hours as the low pivots northeast.

Late tonight, will see a vort max from the H5 low approach from the
north and fuse with a shortwave which ejects from the Four Corners
region. While the wave and resultant sfc low track remain well south
of the area, there is enough mid-level forcing to support some
widely scattered shower activity. Forecast BUFKIT soundings
suggest the best odds at achieving saturation remaining east of
a line from Kearney to Red Cloud, but even then the activity
will have to fight against some dry air below H7. With this
forecast update, have maintained 15-30% PoPs for areas east of
Kearney to Red Cloud from 04z to 13z.

For Thursday, will see H5 ridging build into the area while sfc high
pressure moves in from the north. Expect a dry day with highs in the
mid 50s.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The sfc high ridge axis will traverse the forecast area early Friday
morning. While we see some clouds linger in the early morning hours,
temperatures cool significantly to the upper 20s for areas
along and northwest of a line from Alma to Kearney to Central
City, while temperatures hover around the freezing mark for the
remainder of the area. Now is a good time to disconnect any
outdoor hoses and insulate any exposed pipes/infrastructure.
Temperatures should warm back up to the upper 40s to low 50s by
Friday afternoon.

Models suggest another shortwave trof approaching from the west late
Friday into Saturday. However, guidance is struggling in generating
much precip, likely due to some influence of a sfc high in the
region. Mid level ridging builds in for Sunday with dry conditions
prevailing. Monday into Tuesday will see another shortwave eject
from southwest Canada toward the Northern Plains. At this time, the
best synoptic scale forcing for ascent appears well north of the
area leading to a dry forecast. Temperatures largely remain in
the 60s from Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Overall the main story for this TAF period is IFR to LIFR
ceilings for both airports developing after 02z tonight and
lasting through 18z Friday. KGRI is favored to remain solely low
stratus ceilings with no fog / mist. KEAR, however, holds
higher uncertainty between 08z - 15z FRI. Fog / mist formation
from saturated near-surface levels cannot be ruled out during
this time frame for KEAR, and so have opted to reduce
visibilities to 3SM with prevailing mist and LIFR ceilings. This
will no doubt be something to watch for the next TAF issuance.
The other uncertainty is how cold both airports can get tonight.
Some data suggests that temperatures may fall below 32 F, and
thus fog / mist may turn to freezing. Considered a FZFG group to
account for this, but latest thinking is that temperatures will
stay just warm enough to stave off freezing moisture.

Winds will calm to 5 kts or less after 23z this afternoon,
becoming variable overnight. Winds will stay calm and variable
through 18z Friday. No LLWS is expected tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...Began