400
FXUS63 KGID 291120
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog and drizzle this morning. Warmer this afternoon
  with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

- Thunderstorms move in from the west late this afternoon into
  the evening. Some could be marginally severe, mainly west of
  Highway 183 in the 6pm-11pm timeframe.

- Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely through the
  Labor Day Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Satellite and surface observations show low cloud cover (along
with patchy fog/drizzle) continuing to slowly fill in central
Nebraska and Kansas. Some localized dense fog remains possible,
especially in low-lying areas, through around 10am this morning. Cloud
cover is expected to break up enough for temperatures to reach
the mid to upper 70s this afternoon...5-10 degrees warmer than
yesterday in most areas.

A few showers and thunderstorms could develop as early as mid-
afternoon, but are more likely to hold off until better forcing
arrives from the northwest in the 6-11pm timeframe. Fairly
strong deep-layer shear (30-45kts) combined with modest
instability (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE in our far west) may allow for
some updrafts to support marginally severe hail/wind. The severe
threat then wanes as storms continue southeastward across the
area tonight into early Saturday morning.

Spotty showers/storms may persist through sunrise on Saturday.
CAMs show scattered storms redeveloping as early as 11am-12pm
on Saturday as an upper shortwave slowly moves through the area.
There will be plenty of dry breaks during the day on Saturday,
but scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through
most of the afternoon and early evening. Fortunately, the
overall severe threat looks to remain fairly low. Locally heavy
rain will be the primary threat.

Coverage of rain/t-storms gradually shifts eastward with the
shortwave Saturday night into Sunday morning. Western areas will
trend drier on Sunday, but additional showers/storms are
anticipated to redevelop over at least the eastern half of the
area Sunday and Sunday night.

PoPs decrease on Monday, but a few more showers/storms cannot be
entirely ruled out as the shortwave finally pushes out of the
area. In total, global ensembles favor most areas to see
between 0.50-2.00" through Monday night.

Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry with slightly below-
normal temperatures. Highly amplified northwesterly flow and
another shortwave/cold front will bring spotty rain chances and
cooler temperatures to the area for Wednesday/Thursday.
Ensembles then favor above-normal temperatures to finally return
next weekend into the following week (Sept 6-8).


.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including wind details):
This is a somewhat tricky period with regard to ceiling (and to
a lesser/briefer extent visibility), with sub-VFR conditions
expected to dominate much of the first 12+ hours (especially
KEAR), before at least low-end VFR likely returns through much
of the latter half. At least light fog could also promote mainly
MVFR visibility for a a few-to-several hours (more favored
KEAR). Toward the final 6-9 hours of the period Friday
afternoon-evening, shower/thunderstorm potential could come into
play, but this is quite uncertain. Winds will not be much of an
issue, with sustained speeds throughout the period averaging
mainly under 10KT from a southerly or southeasterly direction.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
KEAR will likely start out the period with MVFR ceiling while
KGRI is more likely to hang onto low-end VFR for at least a few
hours. By 09-10Z, a potentially rapid deterioration to MVFR
(favoring KGRI) and IFR (favoring KEAR) ceiling is expected,
along with perhaps MVFR visibility (in light fog and perhaps
light drizzle). Assuming this deterioration does indeed occur,
there is still some uncertainty regarding when ceiling might
return to at least low-end VFR, but based on latest guidance
have maintained the 20Z VFR expectation from previous/00Z TAFs,
with at least low-end VFR ceiling tentatively expected to
continue through the remainder of the period.

As for shower/thunderstorm potential during the latter half of
the period, confidence is admittedly quite low. There could be
at least spotty activity in the area as early as 21-00Z, but
overall-better potential probably holds off until very late in
the period (more so around/after 03Z. Considered introducing
PROB30 for non-severe thunderstorm potential, but given the
inherent uncertainty and that these chances are still beyond the
first 12 hours, have kept out any official shower/thunderstorm
inclusion in TAFs at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings are expected to continue to fall this morning (to IFR
at EAR and to MVFR at GRI), before improving this afternoon. A
few light showers are possible this morning, but the best
chance for rain/t-storms will be after 02Z.

After storms clear the area tonight, another round of MVFR to
IFR stratus and patchy fog is possible.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels