162
FXUS63 KGID 170613
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
113 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are again possible Tuesday mainly
  during the evening and early overnight hours. Large hail and
  damaging winds will be the main threats.

- The heat will become a concern Friday and Saturday with
  temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to around 105 degrees. Heat
  index values will mainly range from 100 to around 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Today and tonight...

An upper ridge extends from northern Mexico up towards Kansas and
southern Nebraska. A shortwave trough in the upper flow will move
over the area this afternoon into tonight. A cold front has began to
push into western and northern portions of Nebraska this afternoon.
Atmospheric lift is being enhanced along the front and shortwave
trough. Dewpoint temperatures across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas are in the 60s. A surface trough
will be present ahead of the cold front with winds mostly out of the
south. Lift and instability will be enhanced along this surface
trough. High to very high surface CAPE values will be across the
area with values increasing to the northwest along the surface
trough. Mid-level lapse rates and wind shear will also be fairly
high. Thunderstorms are expected to develop, possibly as early as
around 4 PM and as late as 9 PM, and will continue across the area
into the overnight hours. Severe storms are expected given the
previously mentioned conditions. Damaging winds and large hail will
be the main threats although there is a slight chance (around 20%)
of an isolated tornado or two.

There is some uncertainty in the models as to when convection will
start to develop and possibly where it will develop first. One hi-
res model shows a line of storms developing around 5 PM from Greeley
County southwest to Dawson County and moving southeastward through
the evening. This models shows most, if not all, of the storms out
of the area by 2 AM. Another hi-res model shows storms just
beginning to enter Valley County around 9 PM with other storms
moving in from the northwest through the overnight hours. This model
shows storms still ongoing during the morning hours. High
temperatures today will range from the lower to upper 90s. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

An upper trough will begin moving over Nebraska and Kansas on
Tuesday. Showers and storms may still be ongoing, especially across
north central Kansas, Tuesday morning. There is also some model
uncertainty in regards to timing and placement of convection on
Tuesday. Some models start storm development in the afternoon while
others hold off until evening with a line of storms that sweeps in
from the west. Tend to think that any storm development in the
afternoon will be weaker and the main storms will impact the area
during the evening and possibly overnight hours. One hi-res model
shows storms developing across the area during the early evening
hours then a line of storms moving in from the west through the rest
of the evening into the overnight hours. Strong to severe storms are
expected on Tuesday, especially during the late afternoon through
evening hours. The area of greatest threat for severe storms on
Tuesday will be north central Kansas and along the Nebraska-Kansas
border while instability will be highest. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats with these storms although an
isolated tornado or two is possible. High temperatures Tuesday will
be in the mid 70s to mid 80s and low temperatures Tuesday night will
be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday through Sunday...

Some lingering showers and thunderstorms may remain across eastern
portions of the area on Wednesday (15% to 25% chance); otherwise,
Wednesday is expected to be mostly dry. Winds will be mostly out of
the north across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas on Wednesday with temperatures warming up into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds will switch to to south to southwest
Wednesday night with low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. An
upper ridge will extend northward into Kansas and Nebraska on
Thursday with winds across the area strengthening out of the south
to southwest. Mostly sunny skies will be present with temperatures
warming up into the low to mid/upper 90s. Low temperatures Thursday
night will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. The upper ridge will extend
from the Gulf Coast northward over Nebraska and Iowa on Friday. The
ridge will become more amplified on Saturday extending towards the
Great Lakes. Friday and Saturday are expected to be the hottest
days so far this season with highs in the mid 90s to around 105
degrees. Heat index values across the whole area will mainly be
in the triple digits ranging from 100 to around 105. The upper
ridge shifts a little further east on Sunday with temperatures
across the area cooling slightly.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
Although this is a fairly low confidence forecast with regard to
EXACT timing of potential shower/thunderstorm activity,
confidence is overall-high that at least the VAST MAJORITY of
the period will feature VFR ceiling/visibility and
dry/thunderstorm-free conditions. That being said, there appears
to be some "sneaky" potential for at least brief sub-VFR ceiling
(if any "random" patches of low stratus manage to develop) and
also sub-VFR visibility mainly a few hours either side of
sunrise this morning if any transient/patchy fog manages to
form in the wake of departing rain. Winds will also be of below-
average confidence...especially direction, as pockets of
thunderstorm outflow will likely lead to erratic/gusty winds
(especially these first 2-3 hours). That being said, direction
should MAINLY average some variation of easterly and then turn
more northerly late in the period as a weak cold front finally
passes through.

- Ceiling/thunderstorm/precipitation details and uncertainty:
Right out of the gate early this morning, a broad area of
showers with embedded gusty winds of 20+KT is working through.
Beyond 08-09Z, this shower activity should move out, but
maintained a generic "vicinity shower" for several more hours in
case any activity redevelops. Thunderstorms are fairly likely
this morning, but not completely out of the question. One of the
main "question marks" involves whether any difficult-to-forecast
lower stratus and/or light fog develops, at some point later
this morning, and have at least "hinted" at this potential with
"6SM BR" and "SCT010" groups. As for the next main round of
shower/thunderstorm potential (beyond the activity early this
morning), it honestly could arrive really anytime during the
afternoon-evening hours, but at this time opted to focus a
PROB30 group for what could be strong (but not necessarily
severe) activity during the 23-04Z time frame.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch