446
FXUS65 KGJT 111725
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1025 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions dominate the forecast
  through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are on tap today and
tomorrow with high pressure gradually building in overhead. High
temperatures climb to 15-20 degrees above normal during this
period with overnight lows also running around 10-20 degrees
above normal for mid-December. Other than that, northwesterly
flow aloft will continue to supply the region with a steady
presence of passing clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Ridging moves overhead this weekend providing mostly sunny
skies and dry conditions. Temperatures will be rather mild for
mid December with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A
shortwave cuts through the ridge on Monday but doesn`t appear to
carry much if any moisture with it. This shortwave does act to
break the ridge down and open the door to some Pacific moisture
coming across the Pacific Northwest and into the Intermountain
West. Much of this moisture looks to impact the Cascade Mountain
Range and inland into the Intermountain West. Our forecast area
will be under a westerly flow at this time, so our next best
chance of precipitation might be Tuesday or Wednesday of next
week due to this active northern stream with the northern
mountains favored. Confidence in this mid week system is low
with not much moisture left over by the time it reaches us with
some guidance drying things out behind it and much of the
moisture staying north of the region. Still plenty of time to
work out any details but low confidence at this time. Until
then, the forecast looks mild and dry with some passing mid and
high clouds through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue around the region, with some broken
high clouds skirting northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this
afternoon. Skies clear out late tonight for the entire region,
while winds remain light and terrain driven in the mountain
valleys. A non zero chance exists for some low stratus in the
Gunnison Basin early Friday morning. This is a low confidence
expectation due to similar conditions this morning. Given low
clouds developing there, clearing is expected around the tail
end of this period.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT