804
FXUS65 KGJT 161758
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1158 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry conditions with near-normal temperatures are
  expected through Monday, although an isolated mountain shower
  or two is possible.

- A frontal boundary could deliver some additional showers
  Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

- A warming trend will continue through the week. Triple digits
  will remain confined to the Four Corners and low desert
  valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Residual, but limited moisture may result in a shower mainly
along the Divide this afternoon. Otherwise most locations will
be dry. The same can be said about tomorrow. A weak frontal
boundary sets up across the Northern Great Basin Tuesday into
Wednesday, tightening up the surface pressure gradient across
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Some gustier winds of
20-30 mph will be possible in this region, although surface
relative humidity values will be high enough that critical fire
weather conditions are not anticipated. Some extra moisture
accompanies this frontal boundary, with PWAT values forecast to
be 100-150% of normal across the region, with the best moisture
north of I-70. With a combination of orographics and a bit of
forcing from the frontal boundary, some isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
higher terrain Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Slightly above
normal moisture lingers through the end of the work week,
leading to lower-end (20-30%) chances of showers or
thunderstorms over the higher terrain each afternoon. The main
threats with these storms will be gusty outflow winds and
lightning, although a brief heavy downpour cannot be ruled out.

High pressure settles over the Four Corners Thursday into Friday,
ushering in a drying and warming trend. By the end of the week, high
temperatures are expected to run around 10 degrees above normal,
with triple digits across the lower desert valleys and the Four
Corners. Friday into the weekend, models are indicating a trough
moving into the Pacific Northwest will nudge the high eastward once
again, returning weak monsoonal flow into the Four Corners.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to remain in place through the TAF
period. Some mid level clouds are forming on the terrain this
afternoon, but breakpoint ceilings are not expected. Winds will
pick up during the peak of afternoon heating, leading to some
gusts around 20 mph, but then diminish quickly early this
evening. A non zero chance for a shower or two on the Uintas and
up against the Continental Divide remains. Gusty outflow winds
around these dry showers will be the primary threat to aviators.
Light winds and clear skies will close out this period Monday
morning.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT