834
FXUS65 KGJT 060540
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1140 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few, very isolated, showers are possible over the eastern
  Uintas and northern mountains this afternoon.

- High temps will remain cooler today but will rebound to more
  normal values Monday and increase day by day.

- Drier conditions are expected for much of the coming week.
  However, moisture potentially returns late this week into the
  coming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A few showers have popped over the eastern Uintas and over the
northern mountains as the next upper level trough approaches
from the northwest. Minimal precip coverage is expected
however. Some midlevel ceilings can be found across the northern
valleys while elsewhere mostly sunny skies are the rule. After
cold frontal passage, temperatures have dropped noticeably this
afternoon anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees from what we saw last
week...a nice fall afternoon actually. Whatever precip remains
this evening will end overnight as the upper level trough
continues to be draped across Wyoming down through Nevada and
remains fairly stationary. Tomorrow, more of the same with
plenty of sunny skies expected across the region though more
clouds are anticipated along the CO/WY border. Highs will bump
up 2 to 5 degrees from what we`ll see today. We might see a very
isolated shower along the Continental Divide of the northern
mountains but chances are only 20%. Another nice fall day
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A weak Rex Block will set up over the western CONUS on Tuesday with
a closed low off the coast of California. This places our CWA under
confluent upper-level flow with drier air to accompany. Stronger
moisture will persist south of us across New Mexico though, and as
the blocking pattern breaks down into Wednesday, we should see this
anomalously high moisture drift northwards over us. This rise in
local PWAT`s will be gradual as the open wave over the PacNW will be
slow-evolving. Regardless, look for afternoon PoP`s to rise steadily
from Wednesday onwards. On Wednesday, precipitation potential will
be confined almost entirely to the high terrain of the San Juans.
Ensemble PWAT`s should begin exceeding 200% of normal (or
potentially over 250% of normal if we are to believe the ECMWF) by
Friday. This should be enough to support more widespread rainfall
across the region when paired with falling heights ahead of the
building longwave. Models aren`t too optimistic with instability
though, which could be trending us towards more of a steady, wetting
rain as opposed to convective-type storms. It`s too early to know
for sure, especially without CAM`s. As another note, with surface
and mid-level temperatures increasing throughout the week, forecasts
look to keep the precipitation type as almost entirely rain aside
from possible flurries reaching the highest peaks. This moist,
southwesterly flow could persist into early next week, so don`t be
surprised if showers are a daily occurrence for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

SCT to BKN cloud cover will linger overnight over the northern
mountains with FEW to SKC elsewhere. Skies should improve with
clouds lifting by afternoon over the high terrain. Breezy
conditions with gusts up to 25 kts are possible across mountain
TAF sites (KASE and KTEX) as well as KRIL, KEGE and KGUC.
Otherwise, winds generally remain light and terrain driven. VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT