787
FXUS65 KGJT 310611
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1211 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon, tapering
  off this evening.

- Temperatures will be near normal to 5 degree above average
  through the week.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible in the San Juans each
  afternoon through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Northwest flow has become established over the region. There is
still residual moisture with PWATs around 0.80" on the latest GJT
sounding, which is modest. Also, surface dew points are in the 40s
and 50s. Clouds mixed out this morning and allowing the sun to
destabilize the atmosphere. As a result showers and storms are
developing across the eastern half of the area. There is enough
moisture and instability for brief down pours and perhaps some small
hail. Wind gusts around 30-40 mph are also possible near these
showers. Convection should dissipate this evening with clearing
conditions overnight. Northwest ushers in much drier air tomorrow,
which will inhibit any showers with one exception, the San Juans.
This is where afternoon showers and storms could develop.
Temperatures will rise a couple of degree compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Dry conditions return to the area and will persist through much of
the week as PWATs remain at or just below normal through the period.
Synoptically speaking, an area and ridge of high pressure will be
centered over Utah as a deep, stationary low spins off the PacNW
coast. The high won`t move much through Wednesday so our weather
will be very similar day to day. That being, some isolated
convection over the San Juans as daytime heating releases enough
instability for a brief shower or storm to fire. Elsewhere, plenty
of sunny skies with some Cu buildup over the higher terrain and
light winds are expected. During this timeframe, deep monsoonal
moisture will have been streaming up into Arizona and Nevada thanks
to the location of the ridge. For the rest of the long term period,
ensembles are suggesting an approaching trough may force the ridge
eastward allowing some of this moisture to work into our region.
While chances are low (<30%) for convection on Thursday and Friday,
coverage does begin to increase and by Saturday chances jump to 30
to 50% for the higher terrain for much of the CWA. This is a ways
out, however, so the usual caveats apply. Let`s wait and see how
things work out. Highs through the period will run about 3 to 5
degrees above more usual early September (it`s September already?
What happened to August?) values.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours beneath high
pressure. A few clouds will form on the terrain Sunday
afternoon. Some showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
San Juans and up the Divide. Included PROB30 TSRA in KTEX. These
will be pretty isolated and short-lived. Some gusty outflows,
brief MVFR ceilings, and perhaps small hail are possible. Skies
will clear early tomorrow evening and VFR will close out the
period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT