525
FXUS65 KGJT 152112
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
312 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for most of eastern UT and
  western CO for Monday.

- High temperatures will trend 10 to 15 degrees above
  climatology to start the work week.

- A slight cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday will be followed by
  more hot, dry, windy conditions late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A weak shortwave disturbance working across the Rockies this
afternoon is producing a few thin high clouds around the region.
This filtered some sunshine briefly today, but full sun
conditions prevail, with temperatures well into the 90s in our
lower valleys. Southwesterly winds have picked up this afternoon
ahead of the jet streak nosing into the Great Basin. This
feature is also pushing some thin moisture over the top of a
flattening ridge of high pressure. This will continue on Monday,
with some thin high clouds the only outcome. Stronger winds
aloft arrive Monday too as the mentioned jet streak pushes
through ahead of the upper trough. Deep mixing continues Monday
and thus stronger surface winds will gust 25 to 35 mph Monday
afternoon. This will produce Red Flag conditions across the
region, with most fire weather zones under a Red Flag Warning
Monday afternoon. Winds will simmer down around sunset Monday
evening. The upper trough is expected to pass overnight Monday,
early Tuesday. This will likely keep a few clouds and maybe a
raindrop or two across our northern counties. Measurable
rainfall would be a tall order for this clipper system swinging
through, given the dry antecedent conditions. Clouds Monday
afternoon could temper highs again, but low valleys will flirt
with 100s again, especially south of the Colorado River where
clear skies dominate Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

On Tuesday, the passage of a shortwave trough aloft will help
knock temperatures down towards climatological normals. The
reprieve from the heat will be short lived, however, as another
ridge of high pressure will help high temperatures warm to 10-15
degrees above normal for the latter half of the week.

One of the biggest forecast questions is how much
precipitation, if any, will initiate as the shortwave passes
through on Thursday. The GEFS and NBM are much drier than the
ECMWF ENS, GEPS, and NAM. In the wetter ensembles the
precipitation chances are primarily concentrated over the Divide
mountains and, to a lesser extent, the Uintas. I wouldn`t be
surprised if we se an uptick in NBM PoPs as Tuesday draws
closer. There will be sufficient forcing and an uptick in PWATs
to climatological normals. That could prove to be enough to
cause isolated to scattered storms over the higher terrain
Tuesday afternoon. If storms are able to form gusty outflow
winds and lightning starts will be the main threats.

Critical fire weather concerns continue throughout the week as
well. On Tuesday the valleys south of I-70 in southwest Colorado
will be the main concern. After a lull in critical conditions
on Wednesday, winds will pick back up for Thursday through the
weekend. This longer stretch of hot, dry, and windy conditions
will likely lead to daily Red Flag Warnings for much of the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Scattered high and mid level clouds will stream through the
region today. Ceilings are not expected at terminals. Gusty
southwest winds will impact terminals this afternoon and early
evening. Expecting gusts 20 to 30 mph around the region. Skies
will clear and winds will diminish overnight, closing out the
period with VFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Hot, dry, windy conditions ahead of a passing disturbance
Monday will produce widespread Red Flag conditions across the
CWA. Winds will gust 25 to 35 mph across much of the region
thanks to strong winds aloft. The trough passage early Tuesday
will likely thin critical fire weather potential Tuesday
afternoon, but a few zones will likely demand another fire
weather headline. Winds relax even more Wednesday and critical
fire weather conditions will likely be nil to nothing. Another
disturbance working ashore out west will bring winds back up
Thursday and into next weekend, with more hot and dry
conditions. This will likely produce more critical fire weather
then. Wetting rains are not expected through the extended
forecast.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ200-202.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ200>203-
     205-290>293.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ486-487.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for UTZ486-487-
     490-491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT