934
FXUS65 KGJT 301132
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
532 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon, tapering
  off this evening.

- Temperatures warm up today within 5 degrees of normal.

- Warmer and drier conditions return Sunday and beyond with near
  normal temperatures and some isolated afternoon mountain
  showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 424 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Drier air is being pulled into the Four Corners this morning on the
heels of a departing jet streak still working across the mountains.
A weak trough swinging across Wyoming this morning is dragging enough
energy through the northern half of the CWA to keep some cloud cover
on the western shoulders of the Continental Divide. This has
produced some light rain, low ceilings and reduced visibilities at a
few airfields. Some stratus and fog is forming as upper level cloud
cover pushes across the Divide. This comes as no surprise with the
surface moisture laying around from a week of intermittent rain and
near 60 degree dewpoints. Dry air filtering in behind the trough and
some morning sunshine will quickly chew anything up. Morning
travelers might want to double check their route for fog, but as of
now it`s just low stratus and nothing has settled to the surface.

Drier air and more sunshine arrives today, pushing temperatures up
within 5 degrees of normal. Afternoon sunshine will initiate a few
thunderstorms and showers on the terrain. These will be short-lived,
producing a few brief downpours, gusty outflows, and maybe some
small hail. Flash flooding risk is very low today, as we dry out
considerably. Shower activity will taper quickly early this evening
and clear skies will usher in a cool night. A few basins, including
the Gunnison and Upper Yampa could see some upper 30`s tonight for
lows. Patchy fog will likely remain a concern Sunday morning too.
Warmer and drier conditions return Sunday, with temperatures
hovering around the normal mark along with abundant sunshine. A few
showers develop on the San Juans and up the Central Divide a bit.
These will also be short-lived in the drier, more subsident airmass.
Quiet, clear conditions return Sunday evening to close out the 3 day
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

On Sunday PWAT anomalies will fall to below normal across the CWA,
bringing an end to the brief return of the monsoon. Terrain based
afternoon convection is still in the forecast Sunday, but elevated
PoPs are primarily located over Colorado`s southern mountains where
PWAT anomalies are expected to be the greatest. Moisture will linger
in the southern mountains while the rest of the CWA remains dry,
leading to forecasts for afternoon convection on Monday and
Tuesday that look similar to Sunday`s. Some guidance suggests a weak
return of moisture as early as midweek, which would allow for
afternoon convection to become more widespread over the higher
terrain. However, there is little agreement between ensembles on the
timing of this moisture push. Temperatures begin to climb this
weekend, resulting in near normal high temperatures through the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Low stratus and some valley fog is producing IFR conditions at
many terminals this morning. A few isolated rain showers are
winding down too as a weak disturbance clears the west side of
the Divide. Clouds and fog will burn off around 1000 MDT and
mostly clear skies are expected around the region, as we
continue to dry out. Some afternoon thunderstorms and showers
will form on the terrain. These will be short-lived, producing
some brief downpours, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. VFR
conditions will prevail outside of the mountains this afternoon and
across the region this evening to close out this TAF period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT