150
FXUS65 KGJT 312317
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
517 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected in the southern mountains
  most afternoons this week.

- Temperatures will end up near normal to slightly above through
  the week.

- More widespread precipitation is possible on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

With a ridge of high pressure to our west we are currently under
northwest flow aloft. Dry air will continue to filter into the area
leaving the only pocket of residual moisture around the San
Juans and parts of the Sawatch. This is where a few showers and
storms are possible until sunset. Clear skies tonight will
allow for efficient cooling, so expect some chilly temperatures
in the favorable valleys once again. Tomorrow is basically a
carbon copy of today. Highs will end up near normal to slightly
above.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

An area of high pressure will be centered over the Four Corners
Tuesday, with a ridge extending northward through the Intermountain
West. A strong area of low pressure will be spinning off the Pacific
Northwest coast, with a trough extending down the West Coast. This
trough is expected to push east through the remainder of the week,
eventually breaking the high down just a bit and shunting it
slightly east. This will allow for a moisture return starting Friday
and lasting through the weekend. Ahead of this though, we remain
warm and dry. PWAT values are forecast to be near to below normal
through Thursday, with the best pockets of moisture over the higher
terrain of the San Juans and Colorado Divide, where a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms will be possible. The main threats with any
convection that does develop will be gusty winds, lightning, small
hail, and brief heavy rain. Elsewhere, expect abundant sunshine and
temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal through the end
of the week. As moisture begins to return for the weekend, which
both deterministic and ensemble guidance are indicating, shower and
thunderstorm activity will start to expand out from the higher
terrain, and chances for heavy rain will increase. Temperatures are
also expected to begin dropping in response to the increased clouds
and showers. In the meantime, enjoy the abundant late summer
sunshine and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Aside from a few showers and thunderstorms over the San Juans,
conditions are quiet with just some passing mid and high level
clouds. Convection will taper off over the next 2-3 hours, with
a generally quiet and clear night expected. Another round of
light showers or thunderstorms is possible over the San Juans
tomorrow afternoon, but otherwise quiet weather prevails. Winds
will be light and follow typical terrain driven patterns. VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT