141
FXUS65 KGJT 151117
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
517 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for NE Utah and NW Colorado.
  Fire Weather Watches are now in effect for most of eastern UT
  and western CO for Monday.

- Hot temperatures will reach 10 to 15 degrees above climatology
  through the weekend.

- A slight cooldown Wednesday will be followed by more hot, dry,
  windy conditions late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Unseasonably hot temperatures continue in the short term as high
pressure to our south pumps in warm air to the region. Dry air
is also getting entrained into the CWA and with some gusty
afternoon winds expected, fire weather concerns have increased
as discussed below. Outside of the hot temperatures, we`ll see
another day with gusty winds, mainly up north with gusts of 20
to 30 mph expected.

Monday, similar conditions expected but an upper level jet
streak will be making an appearance that will be supporting a
trough well to our west. Deeper mixing is expected to tap into
these stronger winds aloft so gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be
common for much of the forecast area. Some clouds will also make
an appearance north of I-70 with mostly sunny skies south.
Little change to high temperatures as they stay 10 to 15 degrees
above mid June values.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A slight cool down is expected on Tuesday as the trough moves
through the area. Any moisture arriving with the trough will be
very limited and moving over a highly mixed and dry lower
atmosphere. If storms are able to form gusty outflow winds and
lightning starts will be the main threats. A return to very warm
temperatures returns from mid-week as high pressure builds in
Wednesday then is slowly broken down by another strong upstream
system arriving to the PacNW to end out the week. So the main
threat for the bulk of the long term forecast will be centered
around the ingredients for widespread critical fire weather
developing under persistent hot...dry and windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Gusty west through southwesterly winds are expected this
afternoon and early evening. Winds will reach 20 to 30 mph,
with the strongest winds occurring north of I-70. Outside of
that, VFR conditions remain in place.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A series of waves rolling through the progressive pattern this week
will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions. Each of
these perturbations will bring strong winds aloft in the
southwesterly flow ahead of the trough. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect for northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon.
Models continue to indicate an increase in winds for Monday as
low humidities and critical fuels remain in place. Went ahead
and issued a Fire Weather Watch for those zones where fuels are
deemed critical This trend is expected to continue Tuesday ahead
of the trough and surface frontal passage. Winds are expected
to recede Wednesday enough to squash widespread critical fire
weather. However, Thursday a return to brisk southwesterly flow
will likely bring hot, dry, windy conditions back into the mix
and produce more critical fire weather conditions across the CWA
into next weekend.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ200-202.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for COZ200>203-205-290>293.

UT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for UTZ486-487.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for UTZ486-487-490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT