432
FXUS65 KGJT 161751
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1151 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms this morning will decrease in
  coverage midmorning onwards, favoring the CO/WY border in the
  afternoon.

- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the region. A
  Freeze Warning is in effect for many valleys Friday morning to
  account for these cold temperatures.

- The next system drops down from the northwest early next week
  bringing scattered rain and mountain snow showers to the
  region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Models initialized well this morning as they put the center of
the low pressure system over central Utah and latest IR imagery
corroborates this location. As expected, showers and few
thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning ahead and along the
cold front that is just on our doorstep. This activity will
continue through the morning hours favoring the northern
valleys. The low pressure center is progged to move to the
northeast reaching southern Wyoming by midmorning with the cold
front draped to the southwest. Models continue to indicate
precip will still be possible along the CO/WY border though it
should be isolated in nature. As the front moves through, snow
levels will drop to around 7K feet which will allow some snow
to fall over the eastern Uintas and Park Range. 3 to 5 inches
looks a safe bet for the highest elevations there.

Clear skies and colder air will bring subfreezing temperatures
to many valley locations so upgraded the Freeze Watches to
Warnings and also included the Uinta Basin as portions of that
zone will also likely hit below the freezing mark.

Northwesterly flow will bring drier air to the region Friday and
through much of the weekend so we`ll see a return to mostly
sunny skies and dry conditions. Highs will be a little cooler
than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 336 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

With cooler northwesterly flow in place, and reduced cloud cover
overnight from drier conditions, overnight lows will likely drop
below freezing for many high elevation locations, including mountain
valleys. The Grand Valley and desert valleys of eastern Utah look to
remain above freezing temperatures through the long term period.
Temperatures will warm a bit Saturday and Sunday as flow begins to
transition to westerly.

The next potential for a return of active weather looks to be early
next week. Models are showing a trough moving through the west as
early as Sunday evening, and potentially reaching our CWA Monday.
There is still some significant differences between models on the
timing and southward extent of the trough. Additionally, ensembles
are suggesting dry conditions at the start of next week, which would
lead to a lower precipitation event, even with abundant upper level
support. So, confidence remains pretty low regarding the details of
this potential system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail from the Colorado River Valley
southward today. The departing low pressure center working
across WY this morning will drag its front across northeast UT
and northwest CO this afternoon. Lower ceilings for KVEL and
KHDN have been included in TAFs. TEMPO SHRA verbiage was added
at KHDN for some intermittent rainfall expected. Clouds will
clear out later this evening and SKC conditions should prevail
across the region to close out this TAF period. Winds will pick
up this afternoon behind this front with gusts to around 25 mph
across the region, decreasing to the south near the Four
Corners.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     COZ001-002-005-007-008-020>023.
UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     UTZ024.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT