596
FXUS65 KGJT 040427
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1027 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild, dry conditions highlight the forecast through the next
  week with temperatures five to ten degrees above normal.

- Isolated light terrain-based showers across the San Juans are
  possible Sunday through Wednesday with the greatest chance for
  rainfall Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1019 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

High pressure will dominate the weather for eastern Utah and Western
Colorado through Tuesday before a general zonal flow aloft dominates
the pattern with a stronger pressure gradient to the north and
weaker gradient across the region and to the south. The pwats will
remain below 0.70 inches through the coming week limiting any
showers or thunderstorms that may develop through the mountains to
remain light with little accumulation. The GFS indicated an inverted
trough moving to the southwest under the high this evening that
supported isolated light thunder showers over the San Juans, but the
models show the high over the Four Corners strengthening tomorrow
into Monday to suppress the chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over the southern mountains. Though we can`t rule out
these showers and thunderstorms, we can expect them to be isolated
and light. There are still increased chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the southern Colorado mountains Tuesday
afternoon with more isolated storms to the north into the central
mountains as a weak upper-level disturbance transits the region
northwest to southeast. Through the remainder of the week, isolated
light showers and thunderstorms are possible mostly along the Divide
with more scattered storms to the south over the San Juans, though
confidence is low. There are indications of chance coming next
weekend with a deep trough descending down through the Pacific
Northwest towards the region bringing cooler weather and chances for
more showers. Stay tuned for updates on this system. Otherwise,
expect mild dry weather across the region through the coming week
with temperatures running five to ten degrees above normal for the
first week of October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1019 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period region-
wide. Winds will generally be light and terrain-driven. A few
isolated showers may develop over the San Juans tomorrow
after 18Z. Though the likelihood of any storms passing over TEX
is too low to include in the TAF, rainfall may occasionally
occur within the terminal`s vicinity. Impacts should be minimal
to none though.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT