222
FXUS65 KGJT 280001
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
601 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue today with most
  activity done by late evening.

- The potential for flash flooding continues today, especially
  for burn scars and flood prone locales with saturated soils
  from recent rains.

- Temperatures will remain below seasonal climatology.

- A drier pattern begins to emerge Thursday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

High pressure is currently centered over far northern Mexico,
leaving us under west-southwest flow aloft and a push of
moisture from a few days ago, but drier air and weak lapse
rates in the midlevels are starting to filter in overhead as
evident in our latest sounding. This ultimately will result in
less instability and perhaps inhibit deep convection today.
Although there is still enough instability and moisture for
scattered showers and storms regardless. Any storms able to
break through the inversion could become strong with hail and
gusty winds along with heavy rain. Moisture in the low levels is
rather abundant, which may lead to heavy rainfall without
lightning even over the valleys. With all of this being said
pockets of localized flash flooding are possible, especially
over the recent burn scars and the more saturated susceptible
locations. Most of the shower activity should dissipate around
sunset with isolated showers overnight. Far from the high
pressure means temperatures closer to normal today and tomorrow.
The models show that the dry air aloft and lapse rates problem
will linger tomorrow. So expect that convection will have issues
becoming deep much like today. In fact, there might not be less
instability across southern portions of the forecast area
linger tomorrow so the chances for showers have decreased in
that area. Northern portions may see afternoon convection much
like today. The potential for heavy rain slightly decreases
compared to today. Highs come up a few degrees since most
locations should see a bit more sunshine and dry up the low
levels a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The building of high pressure centered to our south will be the
catalyst of a shift back to drier weather, at least over the
weekend. As this high pressure builds, flow will gradually shift
from moist and southwesterly to drier and west to northwesterly.
On Friday one last push of moisture will come through before
anomalously dry air returns over the weekend. This push of moisture
is expected to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the
region Friday afternoon, especially as the remnants of a closed low
off of California`s coast pass through our region as a weak wave on
Friday morning and afternoon. On Saturday lingering moisture may be
sufficient for terrain based convection. However, by Sunday dry air
looks to limit PoPs in all but the southern mountains. Monday and
Tuesday look less clear in terms of afternoon convection due to
ensemble differences on moisture advection. With the building high
pressure and decrease in moisture, high temperatures will begin to
climb back towards near normal this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Scattered storms will continue through this evening, diminishing
after sunset. The main concerns will be heavy rain, small hail,
lightning, and some gusty outflow winds near thunderstorms.
Brief drops to MVFR conditions or ILS breakpoints are possible.
Low ceilings may hang around some TAF sites into the overnight
hours. A little bit drier conditions are expected Thursday with
isolated to scattered storms developing mainly over the high
terrain in the afternoon with localized pockets of heavy rain
possible as well as a gusty wind and small hail threat.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT