518
FXUS65 KGJT 170217
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
817 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for southwest Colorado
  Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures moderate some tomorrow with isolated showers and
  storms possible over the high terrain along and north of I-70.

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions return Thursday into the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Winds have decreased below critical fire weather thresholds
across much of the area with some localized critical fire
weather conditions in place, particularly in Moab (east-central
Utah). Winds are expected to subside with relative humidity
recovery over the next hour so updated to let the Red Flag
Warning expire at 8 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Deep mixing is occurring across the forecast area this
afternoon leading to single-didgit relative humidity and
southwesterly wind gusts up to 35 mph. Red Flag Warnings remain
in place for much of eastern Utah and western Colorado through 8
PM tonight.

Tomorrow, the passage of a shortwave trough aloft will help
knock temperatures down towards climatological normals.
Isolated, high- based showers and storms will be possible with
its passage over the northern and central Divide mountains, as
well as the Uintas, but wetting rains are not likely. Instead,
inverted V soundings favor gusty outflow winds up to 55 mph and
the potential for lightning starts. Synoptic wind gusts up to 35
mph remain a threat for southwest Colorado tomorrow afternoon
leading to another round of Red Flag Warnings where fuels are
critically dry. Winds will subside Tuesday night as the
shortwave disturbance moves off to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Wednesday, much of the CWA will see a 5 degree temperature
adjustment downward thanks to light northwest flow in the wake
of the recent upper level trough clipping our CWA. High pressure
builds back in rather quickly across the Southwest. This will
see our eastern Utah counties quickly warm back up Wednesday
afternoon. Light winds aloft will keep widespread critical fire
weather conditions away Wednesday. This all changes on Thursday,
as hot, dry, windy conditions return to the CWA. A digging
trough in the West and stubborn ridging over the eastern U.S.
will keep us locked into a persistent fire weather pattern into
next weekend. Strong southwesterly winds will impact the CWA
through next weekend. Some of the strongest winds are expected
Saturday under a potent jet max working from SOCAL across the
Four Corners. Multi-member ensemble guidance is suggesting winds
gusting 35 to 40 mph across the Uinta Basin and northwest
Colorado Saturday. Single digit relative humidities will almost
guarantee significant fire weather conditions developing under
this regime. Deterministic models are hesitant to eject this
trough out of the Great Basin, thanks to the downstream blocking
pattern. Some guidance is hinting at the West Coast trough
digging deep enough to send some Pacific moisture into the
southern counties of the CWA Sunday and Monday. This doesn`t
look like enough for precipitation, but could raise relative
humidities and lower temperatures enough to make a difference
for critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, the jet working
through the base of the trough across the Four Corners is a
high uncertainty feature that could have continued impacts on
surface winds at the end of this extended period. For now, it`s
best to count on hot, dry, and windy conditions continuing under
this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Generally southwesterly winds will continue to gust 25 to 35 mph
this evening, lessening after sunset and overnight and returning
to the typical terrain driven nature. A few spots may continue
to be breezy overnight like KMTJ which tends to have enhanced
downslope winds in southwest flow while KTEX experiences LLWS
due to stronger winds aloft moving overhead. SCT to BKN clouds
will continue this evening as a disturbance approaches and moves
through Tuesday afternoon. Breezy conditions pick up again
after 16Z Tuesday with gusts 25 to 35 mph once again especially
across SW Colorado. VFR conditions will prevail the next 24
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Hot, dry, and windy conditions can be expected again tomorrow
afternoon, especially across southwest Colorado where the winds are
progged to be the strongest. After a mid week break in critical fire
weather conditions, another round of widespread hot, dry and windy
conditions will return late in the week through the weekend. This
next round will likely be longer, warmer, drier, and windier than
what we`re experiencing right now.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ290>295.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT