382
FXUS65 KGJT 290548
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1148 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing today, with
  additional rain expected tonight into early tomorrow morning.

- The potential for flash flooding continues today, especially
  for burn scars and flood prone locales with saturated soils
  from recent rains.

- Temperatures warm a couple degrees today, but return cooler
  Tomorrow. Temperatures will warm again over the weekend.

- A final push of moisture will produce showers and
  thunderstorms tomorrow, then drier conditions return
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Another round of afternoon convection is ongoing, primarily
north of I-70 where CAPE is the greatest. Rainfall estimates
and ground observations show that today`s storms are capable of
producing heavy rainfall and possibly localized flash flooding.
Additional concerns with today`s storms are hail and gusty
outflow winds. CAMs show most of the convective activity ending
by sunset. Tomorrow one final surge of moisture advects across
the region from the remnants of a tropical system in the
Pacific. PWATs around 150% of normal associated with this
moisture push are expected to bring increased cloud cover and
more stratiform like precipitation through tomorrow morning.
Afternoon convection is possible tomorrow, but may be limited by
the morning`s cloud cover if it does not clear quick enough.
High temperatures will drop a bit tomorrow, before climbing
again over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

On Saturday a shortwave trough will pass north of the area allowing
dry air to filter into the region. The only moisture will be along
the Divide mountains, which is where showers are possible. On
Saturday there may be some moisture lingering in the San Juans so
isolated showers are possible there. Elsewhere will be dry with
temperatures gradually rising. The only change to the pattern early
next week is a deepening low pressure over the eastern US keeping us
in weak northerly flow, so not much advection. Moisture once again
may linger around the San Juans, which will keep daily afternoon
storm chances going. Additional moisture perhaps filters in mid to
late week. This is when we may see an uptick in convection in the
higher terrain. Temperatures next week end up a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Cloud cover will invade this morning, leading to lower ceilings,
developing rain showers, and thunderstorms by afternoon.
Terminals will deal with variable conditions as
showers/thunderstorms ebb and flow. Breakpoint conditions are
expected for most terminals. Drier conditions begin to develop
from the northwest southward this evening and most terminals are
expected to close out this period with VFR conditions. However,
some shower/cloud activity will linger near the Divide. KHDN,
KEGE, KASE, and KGUC could see some effects into early Saturday
morning.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT