885
FXUS65 KGJT 021956
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1256 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rivers across southwest CO and southeast UT remain rain
  swollen due to runoff. The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs
  remains in major flood stage.

- Light rain below 10000 feet will continue, with snow above.
  Winter weather highlights continue for the mountains.

- Drier conditions return Tuesday with a brief transitory ridge
  of high pressure.

- Another weak disturbance will pass through Wednesday with
  scattered showers and light snow, including a few isolated
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

The potent stream of atmospheric river moisture has begun to
lift from the region this afternoon. Remnant moisture wrapping
behind the front, along with cold air, is producing light rain
and mountain snow across the region. While precipitation rates
are expected to remain light, runoff in area streams will
continue today and beyond as the exceptional volume of rainfall
continues to run off the mountains. Numerous flood products
remain in effect, along with winter highlights for our
mountains, where snow will get a chance to accumulate this
afternoon under cooler temperatures. Freezing temperatures in
the mountains tonight will lead to some slick travel conditions
on mountain passes, as precipitation begins to taper this
evening. Snow will continue to taper southwest to northeast
tonight, with the northern mountains finally drying out sometime
around daybreak Tuesday.

Cooler and drier conditions return Tuesday, with area
temperatures running around 5 degrees below normal. Some overdue
sunshine can be expected across much of the region. Ridging will
be short lived, as another disturbance works across the Great
Basin Wednesday. While moisture remains unimpressive with this
feature, a few showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon. Given the saturated conditions in place, this
commands more attention than otherwise is expected with a
disturbance of this stature. The mountains should pick up
another couple inches of snow too, as cooler temperatures greet
this storm`s arrival.

Models continue to sell broad high pressure building across the
region to close out the week. This should help streamflows and
soils to dry out. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of
climatology, but a slight warm up is expected this weekend ahead
of a potential pattern shift early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1031 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Showers will continue to impact TAF sites west of the UT/CO
border this afternoon and evening. For most locations, these
showers will be all rain, and will lead to brief periods of
lowered ceilings and visibility less than 6SM. For KTEX and
KASE, snow will mix in and will lead to even lowered conditions.
KTEX is currently under LIFR conditions, and will remain so
through roughly 00z, before gradually improving. KASE/KEGE/KRIL
will continue to remain below ILS breakpoints, and will bounce
between VFR and MVFR/IFR conditions through 00z. Activity will
taper off and ceilings will gradually rise after 00z, with all
sites expected to be VFR with at most high level clouds by 12z
tomorrow. Winds will be northwesterly this afternoon and
evening, becoming lighter and terrain driven after 06z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1200 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Moisture has begun to taper over the region. However,
substantial hydrologic concerns persist due to runoff continuing
to clear flooded stem streams.

The primary point of concern remains the stem rivers flowing
into the San Juan River. At Pagosa Springs, major flooding
continues, with the river not expected to return below action
stage until Tuesday sometime. Flooding Warnings continue for the
Mancos, La Plata, Animas, and Navajo Rivers as well, due to
excessive runoff. This remains a Particularly Dangerous
Situation (PDS) thanks to the widespread impacts across the
region.

Areal flood products outside of highlighted river basins will
continue for southeast UT and southwest CO to account for
continued runoff to clear from the stem streams.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ004.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ009-
     010-012-013.
     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ018-
     019.
     Flood Watch until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ019-021>023.
     Flood Watch from 6 PM to 11 PM MST this evening for COZ019-
     021>023.
UT...Flood Watch until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ022-028-029.
     Flood Watch from 6 PM to 11 PM MST this evening for UTZ022-028-
     029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT