966
FXUS65 KGJT 180204
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
804 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a seasonable day tomorrow, more hot, dry, and windy
  conditions return Thursday and persist into the weekend
  bringing widespread critical fire weather conditions.

- Triple digit highs will spread across a majority of the desert
  valleys Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Winds have begun to diminish across the area, bringing an end to
critical fire weather conditions for today. Therefore the Red Flag
Warnings have been allowed to expire.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Satellite imagery early this afternoon shows that the axis of
an upper-level shortwave trough has pushed east onto the Front
Range leaving behind a more stable environment in its wake.
Isolated storms remain possible (15-30% chance) over the high
terrain north of I-70 this afternoon with gusty outflow winds
and lightning being the main threats. Red Flag Warnings also
remain in effect for portions of southwest Colorado this
afternoon and evening. Please see the Fire Weather section below
for more details.

A quiet day is on tap tomorrow with seasonal temperatures and
lighter winds as an upper-level ridge begins to build in across
the Intermountain West.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The main story for late this week into the coming weekend is a
return to hot, dry and windy conditions after a brief "cooldown"
following today`s shortwave trough passage with potential for
widespread critical fire weather conditions and stronger winds.

The ridge of high pressure will slide eastward Thursday as a
low pressure trough deepens over the Pacific Northwest and edges
southward into the Great Basin this weekend. This pattern
appears to remain stagnant potentially through early next week
as some sort of blocking regime sets up. The western slope will
draw more of the dry southwest flow from the Desert Southwest
with a peak in winds Friday and Saturday. Winds will pick up
across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado Thursday and become
more widespread across the entire CWA by Friday and Saturday as
a robust jet streak parks itself for a few days across western
Utah. Most model guidance is indicating southwest winds to gust
upwards of 35 to 45 mph, perhaps a bit higher where a discussion
on Wind Highlights might be necessary in addition to critical
Fire Weather concerns. Relative humidities look to be in the
single digits for a good portion of the CWA through the long
term period. There is some potential that a bit of moisture is
drawn northward early next week across the Divide and Front
Range, but low confidence in this scenario, although it could
raise relative humidity enough to move a few areas outside of
critical fire weather thresholds.

Bottom line: Thursday and beyond look to be hot, dry and
windy...especially Friday and Saturday with potential gusts to
45 mph or higher and widespread critical fire weather
conditions. Temperatures will average about 10 degrees above
normal with triple digit heat being felt once again across the
lower desert valleys of west-central Colorado and eastern Utah
Thursday through at least Friday and potentially into Saturday
given deeper mixing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Breezy conditions will continue through the next 2-3 hours
across the area, with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Winds will
decrease after that point, becoming generally light and terrain
driven. Expect similar conditions tomorrow afternoon. The few
light showers that developed earlier this afternoon have already
dissipated, and mostly clear skies will prevail through the next
24 hours, along with VFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

After a brief lull in critical fire weather conditions tomorrow,
hotter and windier conditions return to round out the week.
Several days of critical fire weather are expected, which is
likely to stress fuels across the area. The hot dry and windy
index is forecast to exceed the 90th percentile in many areas
during this time.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BGB
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT