892
FXUS65 KGJT 241113
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
513 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continues to
  highlight the forecast with less coverage Friday and Saturday
  before becoming more widespread again Sunday into next week.

- Heavy rainfall, lightning, small hail and outflow winds up to
  40 mph will continue to be the primary risks for storms.

- Storms have the ability to produce flash flooding and debris
  flows in vulnerable terrain, including areas near and
  downstream of burn scars.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:

Storm coverage is expected to be much less on Friday than
previous days as a shortwave exits to the east taking the deeper
moisture with it and the high pressure center meanders back to
the west, allowing a drier air mass to filter into the area from
the northwest. This will only be temporary mainly for Friday and
Saturday with high temperatures rising back to triple digits for
lower elevation valleys. Even though moisture content will be
less than previous days with the deepest monsoonal plume to our
west over Nevada and western Utah once again, we should still
hold onto enough moisture to recycle it as it remains trapped
under the high, resulting in daily afternoon convection over the
high terrain. While widespread flooding concerns will be
limited, we will still see some stronger storms capable of heavy
rain and resulting in an isolated risk of flash flooding over
burn scars, already saturated soils and areas of steep terrain.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:

The deeper moisture returns beginning Sunday but more so Monday
through middle of next week as the high shifts eastward,
allowing the deeper moisture to shift over the western slope
with southerly flow on tap for a more favorable trajectory. PWAT
anomalies will go from a reduced 120 to 140 percent of normal
Friday and Saturday, to 160 to 180+ percent of normal by early
to mid next week. This should result in more widespread daily
storm coverage as well Sunday through at least mid next week. We
should see continued heightened potential for heavy rain and
flooding concerns especially over burn scars, vulnerable terrain
and where training storms occur. Our high temperatures should
dial back some with this increasing moisture, at least not as
hot with triple digit heat with warm overnight lows as well.
Models are indicating a tropical system moving off the Baja
westward out into the Pacific around the high, which could draw
some additional moisture northward during that Monday to
Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Lingering monsoonal moisture and northwest flow will combine
with warm temperatures and bring another round of afternoon
storms to the area. Most of the activity will be over the higher
terrain with a better focus over the southern mountains. KTEX
is the most probable are to see a passing storm and this is in
the forecast. Otherwise VFR should prevail under a fairly light
wind regime over the next 24 hours.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rain are expected to develop Friday afternoon as well as through
the weekend, mainly over higher terrain, although coverage will
be less than previous days. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour will be possible with the stronger storms. These rates
could lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially over
steep terrain and recent burn scars. Also, rain over the past
several days has lead to saturated soils, which increase the
chances for excessive runoff.

As a reminder: Keep an eye on our forecasts through the end of
the week and stay tuned for updated hydrology alerts if visiting
or if you reside below terrain vulnerable to flash flooding
and/or debris flows. Dry creeks and arroyos can fill quickly and
without warning from storms miles away.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT