263
FXUS65 KGJT 142343
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
543 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry, windy conditions continue Sunday with temperatures
  in excess of 10 degrees over climatology.

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions develop on Sunday
  and continue into the work week.

- A slight cooldown Wednesday will be followed by more hot, dry,
  windy conditions late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Hot and dry conditions continue across the West Slope this
afternoon. Winds are gusting 25 to 30 mph around the region under a
well mixed airmass. Few clouds can be found for relief from the
nearly summer sun. The upper level pattern shows no signs of letting
go of this hot and dry regime. Winds will tamp down around sunset
this evening and temperatures will recover nicely thanks to low
dewpoints around the area.

A Gulf of Alaska low drags its trough onto the West Coast tonight.
This will arrive with a jet streak rounding the base of the trough
over the Great Basin. Thanks to strong flow aloft, surface winds
come back up Sunday afternoon with a little more conviction than
today. Winds across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado will gust
25 to 35 mph Sunday. This will produce widespread critical fire
weather conditions there, for which a Red Flag Warning is in effect.
Temperatures in our desert valleys will exceed 100 degrees on Sunday
as we push more warm air into the region. Diurnal swings Sunday
night will be broad as we remain dry and overnight lows dip 30 to 40
degrees in the dry air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A more robust trough will be arriving to the upstream coast early
Monday. This trough impinging on the established upper ridge
over the Rockies will set up the climatologically favored high
fire danger pattern over the Intermountain West. Already hot and
dry conditions will be joined by stronger winds in this
breaking down of the ridge pattern Monday afternoon. The end
result will be widespread critical fire weather conditions that
have at least a 60 percent chance of probability. Temperatures
will remain some 10 degrees above normal on Monday with just a
slight cool down expected on Tuesday as the trough moves through
the area. Any moisture arriving with the trough will be very
limited and moving over a highly mixed and dry lower atmosphere.
If storms are able to form gusty outflow winds and lightning
starts will be the main threats. A return to very warm
temperatures returns from mid-week as high pressure builds in
Wednesday then is slowly broken down by another strong upstream
system arriving to the PacNW to end out the week. So the main
threat for the bulk of the long term forecast will be centered
around the ingredients for widespread critical fire weather
developing under persistent hot...dry and windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A few cumulus over the high terrain will dissipate and give way
to clear skies after sunset. Winds will continue to gust 20 to
30 mph as well before returning to lighter, terrain driven winds
overnight although a few areas may see enhanced drainage winds.
Expect winds to pick up again Sunday afternoon with gusts 20 to
35 mph at times, especially across the north. VFR will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A series of waves rolling through the progressive pattern this week
will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions. Each of
these perturbations will bring strong winds aloft in the
southwesterly flow ahead of the trough. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect for northeast Utah and northwest Colorado Sunday afternoon.
This trend is expected to continue Monday and Tuesday ahead of the
frontal passage. Winds are expected to recede Wednesday enough to
squash widespread critical fire weather. However, Thursday a return
to brisk southwesterly flow will likely bring hot, dry, windy
conditions back into the mix and produce more critical fire weather
conditions across the CWA into next weekend.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...LTB