751
FXUS65 KGJT 302315
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
515 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon, tapering
  off this evening.

- Temperatures will be near normal to 5 degree above average
  through the week.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible in the San Juans each
  afternoon through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Northwest flow has become established over the region. There is
still residual moisture with PWATs around 0.80" on the latest GJT
sounding, which is modest. Also, surface dew points are in the 40s
and 50s. Clouds mixed out this morning and allowing the sun to
destabilize the atmosphere. As a result showers and storms are
developing across the eastern half of the area. There is enough
moisture and instability for brief down pours and perhaps some small
hail. Wind gusts around 30-40 mph are also possible near these
showers. Convection should dissipate this evening with clearing
conditions overnight. Northwest ushers in much drier air tomorrow,
which will inhibit any showers with one exception, the San Juans.
This is where afternoon showers and storms could develop.
Temperatures will rise a couple of degree compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Dry conditions return to the area and will persist through much of
the week as PWATs remain at or just below normal through the period.
Synoptically speaking, an area and ridge of high pressure will be
centered over Utah as a deep, stationary low spins off the PacNW
coast. The high won`t move much through Wednesday so our weather
will be very similar day to day. That being, some isolated
convection over the San Juans as daytime heating releases enough
instability for a brief shower or storm to fire. Elsewhere, plenty
of sunny skies with some Cu buildup over the higher terrain and
light winds are expected. During this timeframe, deep monsoonal
moisture will have been streaming up into Arizona and Nevada thanks
to the location of the ridge. For the rest of the long term period,
ensembles are suggesting an approaching trough may force the ridge
eastward allowing some of this moisture to work into our region.
While chances are low (<30%) for convection on Thursday and Friday,
coverage does begin to increase and by Saturday chances jump to 30
to 50% for the higher terrain for much of the CWA. This is a ways
out, however, so the usual caveats apply. Let`s wait and see how
things work out. Highs through the period will run about 3 to 5
degrees above more usual early September (it`s September already?
What happened to August?) values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A few convective showers and storms persist at this hour but as
daytime heating starts to wane, so too will this convection. Do
not expect any impacts at TAF sites but if any impacts were to
occur, the best chances would be at KASE and KEGE. Once
convection dies down, look for a quiet overnight. Tomorrow, VFR
conditions remain in place with some isolated convection
possible over the San Juans. TAF sites should be free and clear.
Generally light winds expected.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT