005
FXUS65 KGJT 170601
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1201 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind
  gusts of 30-50 mph, frequent lightning and small hail.

- Increased moisture in the next few days increases the chances
  for measurable rainfall. Shower coverage should increase as a
  result of the moisture as well.

- Conditions dry out Sunday into early next week bringing a
  return of near critical fire weather conditions.

- Smoke will continue to be a problem until the large wildfires
  in the area receive some rain or higher relative humidity
  slows growth.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

There is a shortwave trough currently tracking over the Northern
Rockies and Northern Plains. The upper-level jet from that system
extends over our area and is perhaps providing weak lift for
convection. Storms have already formed on the higher terrain and
expect those showers propagate over the valleys later this
afternoon and evening. The primary threat with these showers
will be gusty outflow winds of 30-55 mph. Small hail and brief
downpours are possible especially in the higher terrain. The
showers should dissipate for the most part around sunset,
although a few could linger in the Four Corners area overnight.
As that shortwave moves off to the east high pressure expands
back over the region allowing for a slight uptick in the
moisture across the south. Expect another round of afternoon
convection with similar impacts as today. Temperatures will
closer to normal for mid July. With the lower atmosphere getting
more saturated, the strong outflow winds will be less of a
threat, but we can still expect to see gusts to 40 mph. Dry
lightning will still be a threat, especially across northern
portions of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High pressure to our southeast will allow for moisture to advect into
our region with southwesterly flow. The main push of moisture moves
in Thursday evening and will linger through Saturday. On Friday the
greatest atmospheric moisture will be primarily north of I-70, but
PWATs will be above normal across the CWA. Ensemble guidance
suggests maximum PWAT anomalies around 150% of normal. On Friday
precipitation is expected be widespread, but the highest PoPs are
over the high terrain. This precipitation could raise some concerns
for rock slides and debris flow, particularly in the high terrain or
near the newly burned land from our wildfires. On Saturday moisture
begins to decrease, but enough lingers to bring another day of
widespread precipitation chances. Atmospheric moisture continues to
decrease on Sunday, making precipitation chances more constrained to
the higher terrain. The remainder of the long term looks similar, as
each day will have a chance of afternoon convection, primarily along
the Divide and in the southern mountains.

Critical fire weather conditions from low relative humidity and
gusty winds will be localized over the first few days of the long
term. Moisture advection keeps relative humidity values above
thresholds for most of the CWA on Friday and Saturday. Many of our
valleys are expected to drop below 15% relative humidity by the end
of the weekend, and this will persist through the long term.
Increasing wind speeds may raise critical fire weather concerns in
the northern half of our CWA early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Isolated light showers continue overnight mostly on the
southern and western faces of rising terrain south of the I-70
corridor as moisture moves up from the Desert Southwest. Look
for these showers to increase in coverage and develop into
thunderstorms by 18Z. These storms will diminish after 03Z.
Expect generally light winds overnight becoming southwest with
gusts to 20 kts after 18Z. Primary threats from the
thunderstorms is lightning and outflow gusts to 45 kts.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...DB