992
FXUS65 KGJT 182324
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
424 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Variable cloudiness and isolated showers will continue through
  Wednesday afternoon for eastern Utah into portions of western
  Colorado with little accumulation and minimal impacts.

- Accumulating snowfall is possible for the mountains Wednesday
  evening through Friday morning with the San Juan Mountains
  most favored for higher totals and greater impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

A closed low is seen spinning over SoCal with convection
developing in Arizona. Further north towards the Four Corners,
we are seeing scattered to broken cloud cover ahead of this low
and some isolated light showers across east-central and
southeast Utah with some shower activity spreading into west-
central and southwest Colorado. This shower activity is rather
light as forcing is pretty limited today. We will maintain
southwest flow through Wednesday with variable cloud cover and
isolated showers here and there with minimal impacts and
accumulations until Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures
have been near seasonable as the cloud cover has helped keep
highs down a bit from earlier guidance.

Wednesday evening, the low will open up and lift northward
through New Mexico and into southeast Utah and southwest
Colorado by Thursday as negatively tilted shortwave trough.
Showers will increase Wednesday evening in coverage with rates
reaching their peak Thursday, continuing through Thursday night
as the shortwave trough continues to lift northward and the mid
level low moves over the central Plains by Friday morning. Most
of the precipitation looks to favor areas along and south of
I-70, with the better snow accumulations over the San Juan
Mountains as they will have favored lift from the shortwave
trough and steeper lapse rates. Models are coming into better
agreement now with the timing and track of this trough after
some inconsistencies were seen in earlier runs, so confidence is
increasing. Would like to wait another run or two before locking
it in and making any decisions on winter weather highlights. At
this time, the San Juans look to pick up between 5 and 10 inches
of snow while the central mountains see roughly 2 to 4 inches.
Another area to watch is the La Sals and Abajos in southeast
Utah that could see some decent snowfall as well. Snowfall rates
drop off quite significantly by Friday morning but do anticipate
some slick roads and impacts as far north as I-70 over the
passes even if the amounts don`t reach advisory criteria through
Friday morning. Not much cold air advection occurs with this
system so lower elevations look to remain all rain. Snow levels
will hover around 8kft to 9kft during the day on Thursday and
drop as low as 7500 ft by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

After the last lingering bits of our next weather system move
out Friday morning, drier conditions work back in for the
weekend and early next week with seasonal temperatures. There is
a low pressure system that tracks across southern Arizona and
New Mexico this weekend. Right now there`s good consensus
amongst models that most of the sensible weather from this
system will stay south of the local forecast area, but if the
track of this system moves north as the week wears on parts of
southeast Utah and southwest Colorado may receive some light
precipitation. Impacts are not anticipated at this time but we
will continue to monitor this system as it approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 421 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Clouds are on the increase across the region, with mid to low
level clouds filling in from southwest to northeast. Some virga
showers have also been noted across eastern Utah into portions
of northwest Colorado. Little in the way of precipitation is
expected at any terminal, but the higher elevations could see
some light rain or snow, as well as mountains obscuration,
through the next 24 hours. Winds will be generally light and
terrain driven at the surface, with stronger, southerly winds
aloft. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but as ceilings
lower, we will flirt with breakpoints at most terminals. KRIL,
KASE, and KEGE will often be below ILS breakpoints, particularly
between 03z and 12z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT