937
FXUS65 KGJT 111007
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
307 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday
  under variable skies.

- An active weather pattern sets up late this week and beyond
  bringing periods of mountain rain/snow, valley rain, and more
  seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions remain in place through
Thursday with cloud cover increasing as the week progresses.

The upper level ridge that has been responsible for our
prolonged stretch of quiet weather slowly propagates east over
the next 24 to 36 hours. This will result in a transition from
northwesterly to southwesterly flow aloft and increased warm air
advection and moisture advection Wednesday night into Thursday.
The mix of this warmer airmass and thicker cloud cover adds
some uncertainty into the temperature forecast come Thursday,
but warming temperatures are anticipated. How warm is the
question... Right now the NBM is running 10 to 15 degrees above
normal by Thursday afternoon across the entire forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Deep moisture from an Atmospheric River will be moving into the
Desert Southwest and across the Four Corners region Thursday
night into Friday, resulting in increasing mid and high cloud
cover initially. This is all ahead of a deep low pressure system
that will move through the region, bringing mountain snow and
valley rain sometime Friday night through the weekend. There is
still quite a bit of uncertainty with timing, track and strength
of this system, which gives a wide range of outcomes in terms
of the forecast. These details are discussed below.

The latest model trends are continuing to indicate this low
closing off south of the Four Corners by Saturday. While showers
look to begin more on Friday evening, this more southerly track
has resulted in more of a focus across the San Juan mountains
with accumulating snowfall and much less impact north of the San
Juans. The GFS is much stronger with this closed low and has it
lifting northeast across the Four Corners Saturday night and
across western Colorado Sunday before exiting onto the Front
Range and Plains by Monday morning. The ECMWF shows similar
trends but is not quite as strong and keeps the low further
south, potentially stalling a bit before it lifts northward
during the day on Sunday. With the latest trends, the blended
guidance now seems to focus on Saturday evening through Sunday
as the more favorable period for increased snowfall potential
and rates across the southern and central mountains.

Given these stark differences compared to model runs 12 and 24
hours ago with the timing and track, low confidence still exists
in snowfall amounts and timing...but leans more towards the
latter period of Saturday into Sunday versus earlier indications
of Friday into Saturday. Temperatures also look to be an issue
as this system is more southerly and therefore, warmer so some
higher elevations may see rain early on in the event before a
changeover to snow occurs and snow levels lower. The track makes
all the difference so cannot forecast the snow amounts with a
great deal of certainty just yet. Another factor that could
result in less snowfall is that the main plume of AR moisture
becomes more directed south and east of the closed low with the
more southerly track this weekend, resulting in less snow than
previously anticipated so forecasted amounts did lower a bit. We
will have to keep an eye on future model runs to see if more
consistency is shown so we can get a better handle on these
details. Regardless, an eventual change to unsettled conditions
looks to occur late this week into the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with passing
high clouds and light, terrain-driven winds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT