626
FXUS65 KGJT 311846
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1246 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected in the southern mountains
  most afternoons this week.

- Temperatures will end up near normal to slightly above through
  the week.

- More widespread precipitation is possible on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

With a ridge of high pressure to our west we are currently under
northwest flow aloft. Dry air will continue to filter into the area
leaving the only pocket of residual moisture around the San
Juans and parts of the Sawatch. This is where a few showers and
storms are possible until sunset. Clear skies tonight will
allow for efficient cooling, so expect some chilly temperatures
in the favorable valleys once again. Tomorrow is basically a
carbon copy of today. Highs will end up near normal to slightly
above.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

An area of high pressure will be centered over the Four Corners
Tuesday, with a ridge extending northward through the Intermountain
West. A strong area of low pressure will be spinning off the Pacific
Northwest coast, with a trough extending down the West Coast. This
trough is expected to push east through the remainder of the week,
eventually breaking the high down just a bit and shunting it
slightly east. This will allow for a moisture return starting Friday
and lasting through the weekend. Ahead of this though, we remain
warm and dry. PWAT values are forecast to be near to below normal
through Thursday, with the best pockets of moisture over the higher
terrain of the San Juans and Colorado Divide, where a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms will be possible. The main threats with any
convection that does develop will be gusty winds, lightning, small
hail, and brief heavy rain. Elsewhere, expect abundant sunshine and
temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal through the end
of the week. As moisture begins to return for the weekend, which
both deterministic and ensemble guidance are indicating, shower and
thunderstorm activity will start to expand out from the higher
terrain, and chances for heavy rain will increase. Temperatures are
also expected to begin dropping in response to the increased clouds
and showers. In the meantime, enjoy the abundant late summer
sunshine and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 12 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours beneath high
pressure. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop
around KTEX and perhaps KDRO this afternoon. There could be
gusty winds and brief MVFR cigs/vis. Showers will taper by late
afternoon and mostly clear skies will close out this TAF period.
Winds will remain light and variable this afternoon with some
terrain influence.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT