403
FXUS65 KGJT 102328
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
528 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Terrain based showers and thunderstorms will continue today
  and Tuesday. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will remain a
  threat.

- Dry lightning today and Tuesday could threaten new fire
  starts.

- Available moisture increases through the week with an uptick
  in convection and precipitation coverage and intensity
  expected Wednesday onwards.

- Above normal temperatures will gradually cool closer to normal
  with a cooling trend brought on by monsoonal moisture
  Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Weak monsoonal moisture will continue to work beneath the ridge
of high pressure centered over the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be much more isolated today and Tuesday with
lighter moisture, favoring the terrain immediately west of the
Divide. Drier air at the surface in our lower valleys will
remain fertile for gusty outflow winds beneath decaying storms.
These isolated storms will pose a lightning threat as well,
despite the sunny skies in the valleys. This elevates the dry
lightning threat and potential for new fire starts. Moisture
begins to deepen on Wednesday and Thursday. This will increase
precipitation chances around the region, with some wetting rains
expected both days as the monsoonal flow awakens from its
slumber. Ensemble models are advertising PWAT values in the 140
percent of normal range. While this isn`t particularly
impressive, it provides enough hope for wetting rains to break
this hot and dry pattern. Widespread flooding is not expected,
but a few localized showers could pose headaches for flashy
terrain and burn scars.

The influx of moisture will also help with moderating afternoon
temperatures. Highs will trend above normal this afternoon and
Tuesday. Increasing cloud cover and outflows from mountain
showers will begin to work on some of our warmer valleys on
Wednesday, and to a greater extent, Thursday and beyond. While a
big push of monsoonal moisture is not expected in the extended
period. There is some good news in the persistence of this
weaker moisture. This forecast will likely ebb and flow over the
next week. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue on
the mountains and over some valleys. Should we see some repeat
showers in favored locations, this could lend itself to a
greater flash flood risk. Outdoor enthusiasts and residents of
nearby burn scars will want to stay abreast of changing forecast
conditions as we move back out of the hot, dry pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move from
west to east across the region through 03z this evening. KDRO,
KCNY, KVEL, and KHDN are most likely to see impacts. Frequent
lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds are the main
concerns. Drops to MVFR/IFR conditions will a passing shower or
storm are possible during this period. Otherwise, gusty westerly
winds are expected. Skies will clear after 03z with winds
becoming lighter and terrain driven. VFR conditions will
prevail. Showers and storms will redevelop over the higher
terrain after 18z tomorrow, with the same threats expected.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT