892
FXUS65 KGJT 260721
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
121 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will develop each afternoon/evening for
  the foreseeable future.

- Heavy rain remains the primary threat of storms across the
  region. Gusty outflow winds and hail are likely in stronger
  cells as well.

- Watch out for flash flooding and debris flows in vulnerable
  terrain, especially for areas near and downstream of burn
  scars.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Temperatures early this morning remain well into the 70s and 80s
and with upper 90s to triple digit highs expected again the
next few days decided to hoist a heat advisory for many of the
western/lower valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1007 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

High pressure over the region will dominate the forecast for the
next week. Expect little change in the "rinse-and-repeat" forecast
with slow moving afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
developing on the higher terrain and a few possibly moving off the
terrain into the lower valleys. This moisture with pwats around an
inch is trapped under the high with no flow aloft to push it out of
the region. Skies clear overnight under the subsidence of the high to
allow strong diurnal heating after sunrise leading to cu popping by
late morning and conditions becoming convective by about noon. Look
for the subsidence under the high to stifle the convection limiting
chances for strong thunderstorms at least through Tuesday, but,
besides the typical lightning threat, the regime favors slow moving
storms that threaten possible localized heavy rain that may produce
flash flooding on recent fire scars and steep terrain. You`ll want
to stay up on the forecast and be aware of your surroundings if
you`ll be out in the hills this week.

For the latter half of the week, an upper level trough dips south
far enough to bring the right entrance region of a few weak
jetstreaks over the region, especially the northern areas. Though
the upper-level dynamics will be weak, this combined with the strong
diurnal heating may be enough to kick off a few strong thunderstorms
with possible large hail and stronger outflow gusts. Stay tuned for
more detailed updates over the next few days. Under this high
pressure over the region, temperatures will stay five to ten degrees
above normal for the first half of the week, cooling a few degrees
later in the week as the jet dips south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to drift
across the region late this evening along with convective debris
clouds. KVEL and KHDN may see one of these showers in the
vicinity of the airfield over the next few hours with minimal
impacts expected. Otherwise VFR conditions and drainage winds
will prevail through the early morning hours. Like days past
another round of afternoon thunderstorms are forecast with most
TAF sites holding PROB30 groups. Gusty outflow winds and a low
probability of MVFR under moderate rain showers will be threats
near passing storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall
will develop each afternoon through the next week. Rainfall
rates of 1-2" per hour will be possible with stronger storms.
These rates could lead to flash flooding and debris flows,
especially over steep terrain and recent burn scars. Saturated
soils from consecutive days for rainfall will increase the
potential for flash flooding as well.

As a reminder: Keep an eye on our forecasts and stay tuned for
updated hydrology alerts if visiting or if you reside near
terrain vulnerable to flash flooding and/or debris flows. Dry
creeks and arroyos can fill quickly and without warning from
storms miles away. &&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...





CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-006.
UT...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ022-024-027-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT