712
FXUS65 KGJT 160909
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
309 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for most of eastern UT and
  western CO today and Fire Weather Watches in effect for
  central CO on Tuesday.

- High temperatures will trend 10 to 15 degrees above
  climatology today and fall back a few degrees Tuesday into
  Wednesday as mainly dry system works through.

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions return by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The H500 16/00Z hand analysis map still showed high pressure in
control from the Desert SW to the Central Rockies. Upstream
troughing will still off the Pacific coastline but water vapor
imagery suggests this will be moving inland through the morning
hours. The arrival of lower heights to the Intermountain West
this afternoon will help break down the expanse of the ridge and
this is a favored pattern for hot...dry and windy conditions
this time of year. As a result widespread critical fire weather
conditions are highly likely (>70%) and Red Flag Warnings are in
place. This trough progresses through the Great Basin overnight
and moves through our CWA on Tuesday. Slightly cooler
temperatures and lighter winds up North will localize the
critical fire weather conditions while winds and low humidity
remain in place across the South and Fire Weather Watches are in
effect. Moisture transport vectors show some elevated moisture
being pulled in ahead of the trough. In this highly mixed and
dry atmosphere can imagine much precipitation if any reaching
the ground but there is some forcing from the jet aloft and a
weak surface boundary dropping through behind the trough
passage. This may be enough to pop isolated storms but lightning
and gusty winds will much more of a threat than wetting
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Northwesterly flow sets up Tuesday night on the backside of the
trough that moved through earlier in the day. The end result will be
continued temperatures running anywhere from near normal to about 5
degrees above. Don`t get too excited as hot temperatures move back
in as soon as Thursday. Ridging builds back in midweek onwards as a
deep, closed low drops down from the Gulf of Alaska to the PacNW. As
this occurs, the gradient will tighten keeping gusty winds in the
forecast. Dry and hot conditions remain in place so critical fire
weather concerns remain elevated throughout the week. After a lull
in critical conditions on Wednesday, winds will pick back up for
Thursday through the weekend. As the low moves across our northern
neighbors, upper level support and the tight pressure gradient will
be maximized causing increasing winds Friday, with the strongest
winds (30 to 40 mph, if not higher) expected on Saturday. This
longer stretch of hot, dry, and windy conditions will likely lead to
daily fire weather highlights for much of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

FEW to SCT clouds remain across northwest Colorado but should
clear out by early Monday morning with light, terrain driven
winds overnight with exception of enhanced drainage winds in
some areas. Winds will pick back up Monday afternoon with gusts
25 to 35 mph. VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Hot...dry and windy conditions can be expected for the next few
days ahead of and with the passage of mainly dry system. Red
Flag warnings are in effect today over much of the area and Fire
Weather Watches are in effect for the central Colorado Fire
Zones on Tuesday. After a mid week break in widespread critical
fire weather conditions...another round of very hot...dry and
windy conditions will return late in the week. A few passing
high based storms will be possible Tuesday with almost no chance
of wetting rainfall.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ200>203-205-290>293.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for COZ290>293.
UT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for UTZ486-487-490-491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...15