266
FXUS65 KGJT 240422
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1022 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This week will see daily afternoon thunderstorm chances,
  particularly along the higher terrain of western Colorado and
  eastern Utah.

- Localized heavy rainfall continues to pose a threat to flash
  flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain.

- Daytime highs will run ~5 degrees above normal to start the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1014 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

THIS WEEK:

The current synoptic level setup continues to be dominated by high
pressure over the west. Beginning on Monday, moisture and PWAT
anomalies begin to take a downturn compared to previous days. This
will mean less widespread precipitation chances for the area.
However, there remains enough moisture to cause daily afternoon
thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain. Orographic lift will
also be a contributing factor to help enhance these mountain storm
chances. Additionally, morning cloud cover has the ability to
dictate where storm activity materializes as daytime heating can
affect the evolution of storms. As a result of all of this,
localized heavy rainfall is possible from these storms which
inherently poses a threat of flash flooding, especially around burn
scars and susceptible terrain.

By midweek, the high gradually shifts back towards the Desert
Southwest. Because of the continuous presence of moisture, each
afternoon`s storm chances may look similar to each other. That
is, isolated to scattered and mostly confined to the higher
terrain. Synoptic forcing will be somewhat weak for this period,
with the occasional shortwave interrupting the flow around the
high, which will provide some additional lift. So long as the
surface levels remain saturated in certain places, flash
flooding will remain a concern, particularly for burn scars and
susceptible terrain. Primary threats with these storms continue
to be localized heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty outflows.

Daytime highs will start off ~5 degrees above normal to start
the week, with a slight uptick to ~5-10 degrees above normal by
late week. By the weekend, temperatures begin to gradually
decrease each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to be around for
some terminals, but storm activity will gradually diminish after
sunset. Winds around storms could get gusty as well as the
additional wind threat from nearby outflows. Winds will resume
terrain driven patterns overnight. Cloud cover will likely
linger into the morning hours as we have been seeing the past
few days. Shower and storm chances return Monday afternoon,
particularly for the high terrain terminals. All that being
said, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...TGJT