581
FXUS65 KGJT 262145
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
245 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures highlight the Thanksgiving Day
  forecast with dry conditions through Friday.

- Other than periodic light snow showers in the northern
  mountains, conditions remain dry through Friday.

- A weather system could impact holiday travel across the
  Intermountain West this weekend with wintery conditions in
  the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Northwest flow remains persistent across the area with low
clouds still parked across northwest Colorado and high clouds
passing overhead. We remain mild with highs around 5 degrees
above normal in this pattern. Conditions remain dry overall but
some light snow flurries are occurring over the Park Range
Mountains and can anticipate this to continue through Thursday
due to orographic forcing. However, moisture is very limited and
lapse rates are weak resulting in very little in the way of
accumulation and no impacts. On Thanksgiving Day, the flow will
turn a bit westerly as a shortwave ridge moves overhead,
resulting in a bump in high temperatures by a few degrees still
in the 5 to 10 degrees above normal range with mostly sunny
skies and dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

For the long-term forecast period, models are in good agreement
for the most part with a quick shortwave descending through the
Pacific Northwest to pass to the north of eastern Utah and
Western Colorado Friday night followed by a second deeper
shortwave to pass over the region Sunday into Monday morning.
There is still some minor disagreements on timing, strength and
track of these systems both among the models, and from run-to-
run of the models, but they are coming into better agreement.
Still not looking for much snow from these storms; about only
four inches possible on the Park Range Friday night with two
inches or less elsewhere in the northern and central Colorado
mountains, and three to six inches across the northern and
central Colorado mountains Sunday and a bit more in the southern
mountains, four to eight inches with up to a foot in the
eastern San Juans Sunday afternoon and overnight. The problem is
the lack of available moisture with these systems to be real
snow makers. What we need is a good atmospheric river of deep
moisture to work its way into the Western Slope to produce a
foot or more in a storm. Don`t see anything on the horizon, but
it does look like we may be coming into a more unsettled weather
pattern going into next week. Keep in mind that even though not
a lot of snow is likely with these storms, two to four inches
is enough to produce wintery driving conditions, and with the
added traffic from the Holiday, some driving impacts are likely.
Just allow extra time driving this weekend.

The warm zonal flow aloft Friday will keep temperatures about
ten degrees above normal, but with the flow turning more
northwesterly to northerly Saturday into next week, look for
temperatures cooling to more near the seasonal normal. It may
feel like the season is turning bitter cold because we`ve been
spoiled with above normal temperatures, but it`s just near
normal for late November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Expect VFR conditions with generally light winds through the
TAF period. The exceptions will be some gusts to 20 kts at
mountain TAF sites. mid to high ceilings will persist through
the day with areas of clearing skies overnight into tomorrow.
KASE, KEGE and KRIL will see periods of ceilings below ILS
breakpoints through about 02Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB