848
FXUS65 KGJT 031718
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1118 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions persist into next week. A brief period
  of weaker winds today will give way to stronger winds and a
  return of widespread critical fire weather conditions Monday
  onward. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Monday.

- Precipitation chances look very low through at least
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Pretty much all precipitation has come to an end across the
CWA. With a drier airmass beginning to settle into the region
precipitation looks unlikely through the short term. Monday will
be the driest day through the forecast period. PWAT anomalies
on Monday will fall to 25-50% of normal across the region.
Consequently, minimum relative humidity values will drop below
15% for most areas today and Monday. Wind speeds today generally
stay below 25 mph, but with the jet overhead on Monday wind
gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible, creating widespread critical
fire weather conditions. As a result, Fire Weather Watches are
in place from 11 AM to 9 PM on Monday. High pressure will
elevate daytime temperatures from just above normal today to 5
to 10 degrees above normal on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

High pressure will be squarely centered over much of New Mexico for
the entire long term period. Aloft, a jet streak will be draped
across the CWA through Wednesday while at the surface broad west
through southwesterly flow will keep warm air advection in the
picture. This heating will allow deeper mixing and the end result
will be some daily afternoon gusts of 20 to 30 mph across much of
the CWA. Models have been very consistent with this scenario so
critical fire weather conditions will be the biggest concern through
the period. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the GEFS HWDI
is indicating daily occurrences for almost the entire CWA reaching
at least the 75th percentile with several locations reaching over
the 95th percentile. Some clouds are expected to make an appearance
Monday and Tuesday which may inhibit temps, some, and thus deeper
mixing. However, high temps are still forecast to be well above
normal and with RHs dropping to the single digits, seems a no-
brainer that those widespread critical fire weather conditions will
occur. Fire Weather Watches remain in effect as described below.
From Wednesday onwards, critical fire weather conditions are
expected to continue though coverage should decrease as surface
winds will lighten up. Despite that, fire weather highlights will
remain possible. So then, we`ll see a week of hot temperatures,
partly (to occasionally mostly) cloudy skies, and some gusty surface
winds as fire weather concerns remain high.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Skies are mostly clear aside from a few patches of developing
cumulus, and clear skies will persist through the period. Winds
today will follow typical terrain driven patterns, with
afternoon gusts up to 20 knots expected, and light winds after
sunset. Increasingly strong and southwesterly winds are expected
tomorrow afternoon and evening. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Today only localized critical fire weather conditions are
expected as winds generally remain below thresholds. On Monday
the jet moves overhead. Mixing with the jet will allow for
surface wind gusts to exceed 25 mph over much of the region.
With a dry airmass in place, widespread critical fire weather
conditions will exist on Monday, so Fire Weather Watches remain
in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM. COZ205 was not included in the
Watch, but could go either way depending on how the wind
forecast ends up in the next forecast package. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected to continue through the week.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for COZ200>203-290-292.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for UTZ485>487-490.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT